Corona virus sense

Anthoney

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On Tuesday, my county government issued a stay-at-home order that went into effect midnight Wednesday. With less than 12-hours notice to prepare, everyone at my place of work was scrambling to get supplies, tech, and paperwork to work from home. We expected the county to issue such an order but not this quickly. My supervisor was out sick while all this happened. She had been hacking up a lung for a week but swore up and down that it was just asthma. Now she has a fever and a sore throat, but her doctor said she can't get tested for COVID-19 because they're reserving the few test kits they have for those who are really suffering. So if she has the virus, the state will never acknowledge it because she's not sick enough to get tested. I can't help but feel that this is a poor method of containment. I also feel she has a right to know whether she has it or not. Right now, she's stuck at home with her two daughters who could also become ill. I get that there's a shortage of test kits. What I don't get is why there is suddenly a shortage when someone exhibiting symptoms needs one, but if a celebrity or politician so much as sniffles, a test magically appears.

As if all that wasn't concerning enough, my family in Louisiana sent me a news story with these startling statistics about how quickly the virus is spreading there:

March 9: 1 case
March 10: 6 cases
March 11: 13 cases
March 12: 19 cases
March 13: 36 cases
March 14: 77 cases
March 15: 103 cases
March 16: 136 cases
March 17: 196 cases
March 18: 280 cases
March 19: 390 cases
March 20: 537 cases
March 21: 763 cases
March 22: 837 cases
March 23: 1,172 cases
March 24: 1,388 cases
March 25: 1,795 cases
March 26: 2,305 cases

The majority of these cases are in the New Orleans metro area which has a population of about 1,260,000. Nearly half the cases have been in the city itself, which only has about 344,000 people. So far, 83 people have died, including 26 people under the age of 60 (11 under the age of 50). Another 676 people are in the hospital with 239 of them on ventilators. My sister works at a hospital in New Orleans, and my mom has been gathering masks to send to her and her coworkers. I haven't been able to speak to my sister, but I imagine the hospitals are quite hectic there right now.
That's very similar to Florida in numbers but we've had a 120 deaths. I live down in the south Florida hot zone. I'm hoping that being a hermit and only touching cats will finally pay off.
 

HareBrain

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Jo Zebedee

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blah - flags. So many flags.
Not all of us. We get squat.
:( - it’s sh*t for any new businesses. We are very lucky in that the executive here is giving a substantial grant to all small businesses who get rate reductions. They did that instead of the years rate break presumably due to the level of SME in (NI).

I wish i could make the world fair :(
 

Jeffbert

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The main thing with SARS-CoV2 is that the infected (i.e. those with Covid-19) are infectious for up to 5 days after contracting the disease without any symptoms. That's a very good recipe (for SARS-CoV2, that is) for accelerated and widespread infection through a community.
The M&S Foodhall up the hill from me has started doing this (as has one of the banks: the other bank I passed had one person inside, so it may also be asking customers to queue, only there weren't enough of them to do that).

What surprised me, as someone waiting in the M&S queue, was that people were standing at least 2 metres apart, whereas the queue outside Boots (the pharmacy), which has been insisting on queueing for many days, often are less than a metre apart. Even though, as mentioned to Jeffbert, one can be infected and infectious without showing any symptoms, I can't help thinking that there's more chance of someone in the (longish) Boots queue (or someone they're living with/caring for) to have Covid-19 than in the shorter M&S queue.
Hmmm, I had not heard that until just now. But, isn't that the case with most viruses? So, how long after exposure does one become infectious?

With me, if I have a cold, there is about a whole day, sometimes 2, before I am even thinking I maybe do indeed have a cold. sad, that everything in nature has a non-linear curve to it.

So, the thing is more infectious than the flu, & it is contagious days before any symptoms are perceived. What about the people who are infected, but never have sufficient symptoms to realize it? I guess they also spread it.

I also suppose that health care workers, being constantly exposed, might die anyway, even without other issues, if the total amount of it exceeds that person's tolerance. Similar to how a satellite dish concentrates waves on the antenna. Get enough of it, and even a healthy guy can croak. :unsure:
 

pyan

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There is a lot of clapping and car horn tooting here just now. (y)
Same here - remarkably, just about the whole street was at their front doors clapping. Even at midnight on New Years Eve, we don't get more than half-a-dozen out of their houses as a rule.
 

Foxbat

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When I was fighting against depression many years ago, I discovered two weapons in my armoury: exercise and routine.
I’m finding a similar technique helps me cope with the lockdown so here’s a typical day in my life right now.

I’ve brought forward my daily exercise to 0430 to avoid most people. It lasts around an hour and seems to be working. Then, at 0800, I go check on my 80 year old mum but before I do, I don a pair of disposable gloves, then my cycling gloves and cycle the mile to see her. If she needs anything, I head off for supplies (removing my cycling gloves before entering the shop). Shopping done, it’s back on with the cycling gloves, back to mum’s with her supplies. When I get back home, I immediately remove cycling gloves and wash my hands. Then, I remove the disposables, hang them up to dry and wash my hands again. I do this because I only have a few pairs of disposables and it’s a way to make then last.

The rest of the day has already been planned. The night before, I did a stocktake and found some lamb cuts in the freezer. I have potatoes, carrot and onion so I’m making Irish Stew. Tomorrow, I’m making Stovies (just potato and onion needed). After that’s done, I’m cleaning and restringing my 12 string guitar (takes ages). After that, it’s time to plan the next couple of days.

And that’s how I get through the days folks:)

edit: before anybody chastises me, yes, I know real Irish Stew should be made with mutton ;)
 
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-K2-

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>>>WARNING - Depressing Musing Ahead - WARNING<<<

It was mentioned yesterday, since CV-19 is already striking in areas that are entering Autumn--Spring the usual time for such outbreaks--that we might be looking at CV-19 not being a one time thing, yet an annual occurrence :confused:

Today, I was speaking with someone who tends to watch the wrong news and trust the wrong officials. Their arguments of hoaxes, conspiracy theories and so on, quickly fell to be replaced by the next, and eventually she got to her failsafe logic to be right... "So what?" So I gave her a so what.

I mentioned the above, and also mentioned that if everyone did as she suggested and ignored attempts to get a handle on this, it might result in a 2-3% loss of life 'overall,' meaning, not just CV-19, but also other lives lost as efforts and resources are applied where there is the best chance for success. That didn't mean much to her, so I put a real number to it. 3% of 328 million Americans = 9,840,000 dead. That still didn't strike a nerve (granted, it's overwhelming), so I mentioned how this could be an every year thing, to little effect.

At that point, I pointed out something I posted here about 30+ pages back. How nice and quiet the world had become. No traffic, no jets, wildlife taking over, business shuttered, empty shelves, and few people...then posed, what if that was forever?

By her logic, it will all instantly come back as soon as this passes. Fact of the matter is, just as HIV/AIDS irrevocably changed the world (most of you are mature enough to remember the 70s), this pandemic WILL change the balance of our lives in many forms. Some good, some wiser, but quite a few, not for the better as the memory of this lingers. Those changes will also not be something we brush off with a, "whew, it's over," like the cold war. This will linger as much as our parents and grandparents were shaped by the Great Depression.

So, imagine with that loss of life--each year--homes are eventually emptied by people passing. Others by people leaving to find work elsewhere. Social gatherings of the past with all the smooching and hugs might be over. And everyone has that tale of this coworker, friend, or family member lost.

With fewer people, there is no need for so many competing businesses. Many will shut their doors forever. People who had planned and waited and started their dream job, may very well have that dream end, forever. From small businesses to massive, most in some way will be affected as it stands...her way it's assured that the impact will be devastating. So, with fewer people to buy, and fewer to make, plant/pick, goods and services, thin store shelves might not be a passing phase. Sure, places like drive-in movies are seeing a surge now. But, what if the lingering memory makes people cease patronizing theaters--so they close. Maybe not all, but some.

IOW, the barren and quiet world we're seeing now as the world hunkers down, to some degree be our future. If folks do as they should, that result will be 'lessened,' but if they don't, we could be looking at our future now.

So I asked her, "Would you like the world this way forever?"

What about travel? Perhaps Rome might not be so welcoming to outsiders--lord knows some here have been trying to shut our borders before this--now they're already making use of the excuse. I'm also a FIRM believer that folks locked away in their homes, online, traceable, easily predictable, unsocial, and so on...is just what many governments would love. Maybe not to the extent of some Orwellian classic, for most, but to some degree, folks who seek power and control over others, will rarely pass up the opportunity at it.

Fewer bars *gasp!* or other social venues is already going to happen... What if it becomes the norm or worse?

No matter how well the world gets through this, at THIS POINT, our world--how we lived--will change.

So, the question is, to what extent?

K2
 

Foxbat

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I think one positive that might come out of this changed world is less wastefulness. People are having to make do with what they’ve got because of both shortages and lockdown. I know I’m constantly going through my foodstocks wondering what to make with what I‘ve got. With non-essential shopping coming to a halt, folk will also have less temptation to impulse buy. So, all in all, at the other side of this, we might see people more able to fend for themselves and less wasteful.
 

-K2-

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I think one positive that might come out of this changed world is less wastefulness. People are having to make do with what they’ve got because of both shortages and lockdown. I know I’m constantly going through my foodstocks wondering what to make with what I‘ve got. With non-essential shopping coming to a halt, folk will also have less temptation to impulse buy. So, all in all, at the other side of this, we might see people more able to fend for themselves and less wasteful.
Are you sure? Less wasteful as to not pitching the leftovers, but I've known a lot of depression era folks who almost horded food and such...and would never throw it out! 20 year old cans of stew and the like :confused: So, folks might start stocking up with perishables just for the sense of security. If so, then shortages (since manufacturing volume will be lessened) might be more common than they used to be.

K2
 

Foxbat

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Are you sure? Less wasteful as to not pitching the leftovers, but I've known a lot of depression era folks who almost horded food and such...and would never throw it out! 20 year old cans of stew and the like :confused: So, folks might start stocking up with perishables just for the sense of security. If so, then shortages (since manufacturing volume will be lessened) might be more common than they used to be.

K2
Fair point. But I live in hope:)
 

dannymcg

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Cumbria UK
Stockpiling:
I have a faint memory bubbling away but I can't bring it up.

One of the religions....Mormons? Jehovah's witnesses? Has (or had) a policy of each family always having a one year supply of food stored away.

This isn't a religious post, this is me seeking help to remember!

Anyone know what I'm on about?
Cheers
 

Dave

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Where did you hear that? Last I heard, the govt hadn't specified how long it could be for.
I'm sure I read that, and someone else backs me up on this, but I admit that I cannot find any 30 minute restriction now within the official advice. To be fair, that advice has been changed every single day, so it was probably something I read last week.

I don't think that says anything about not driving to an exercise place, though?
That is certainly part of the current official advice, if not in the official restrictions. I saw a feature on the news, with police stopping cars and asking the drivers why they were travelling. Travelling to exercise is deemed non-essential travel. You get a warning. Caught doing it again and you get a fine.

The advice is muddled, conflicting and no doubt some police forces will take a different view to others, but Derbyshire police were saying that no one is to visit the Peak District. I used to live in Sheffield and you could very easily drive into the Peak District within 30 minutes.
 
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Dave

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I’ve brought forward my daily exercise to 0430 to avoid most people.
I've seen other people saying that they are going out running at night.

I was just musing that since the parks are so busy and unsafe to go to during the day, instead of closing them, they should open them at night? Then I thought of the increase in crime that would bring and that the police have enough to do anyway. Exercise and being in nature are both important. There importance is being overlooked in all of this. I understand completely that the priority is to stop people dying, but the mental wellbeing effects from what is happening now will be felt for a very long time in the future. Added to the lack of exercise and the over-eating and drinking, if you put the economic hardship, the failed businesses, cancelled examinations, the strained marriages and relationships, and it all looks pretty grim.
 
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