Corona virus sense

HareBrain

Smeerp of Wonder
Staff member
Supporter
Joined
Oct 13, 2008
Messages
10,788
Location
West Sussex, UK
it's very clearly prohibitted to drive somewhere for your excercise, here in France.
Furthermore you are limited to walking, for an hour max, and within km of your dwelling, and only once per day.
At least that does have the benefit of clarity.

But we have the common law system, whereby limits and definitions are tested and settled only over hundreds of years ...
 

OHB

Crazed Writer
Joined
Jan 5, 2019
Messages
163
Location
somewhere in time and space
On Tuesday, my county government issued a stay-at-home order that went into effect midnight Wednesday. With less than 12-hours notice to prepare, everyone at my place of work was scrambling to get supplies, tech, and paperwork to work from home. We expected the county to issue such an order but not this quickly. My supervisor was out sick while all this happened. She had been hacking up a lung for a week but swore up and down that it was just asthma. Now she has a fever and a sore throat, but her doctor said she can't get tested for COVID-19 because they're reserving the few test kits they have for those who are really suffering. So if she has the virus, the state will never acknowledge it because she's not sick enough to get tested. I can't help but feel that this is a poor method of containment. I also feel she has a right to know whether she has it or not. Right now, she's stuck at home with her two daughters who could also become ill. I get that there's a shortage of test kits. What I don't get is why there is suddenly a shortage when someone exhibiting symptoms needs one, but if a celebrity or politician so much as sniffles, a test magically appears.

As if all that wasn't concerning enough, my family in Louisiana sent me a news story with these startling statistics about how quickly the virus is spreading there:

March 9: 1 case
March 10: 6 cases
March 11: 13 cases
March 12: 19 cases
March 13: 36 cases
March 14: 77 cases
March 15: 103 cases
March 16: 136 cases
March 17: 196 cases
March 18: 280 cases
March 19: 390 cases
March 20: 537 cases
March 21: 763 cases
March 22: 837 cases
March 23: 1,172 cases
March 24: 1,388 cases
March 25: 1,795 cases
March 26: 2,305 cases

The majority of these cases are in the New Orleans metro area which has a population of about 1,260,000. Nearly half the cases have been in the city itself, which only has about 344,000 people. So far, 83 people have died, including 26 people under the age of 60 (11 under the age of 50). Another 676 people are in the hospital with 239 of them on ventilators. My sister works at a hospital in New Orleans, and my mom has been gathering masks to send to her and her coworkers. I haven't been able to speak to my sister, but I imagine the hospitals are quite hectic there right now.
 

HareBrain

Smeerp of Wonder
Staff member
Supporter
Joined
Oct 13, 2008
Messages
10,788
Location
West Sussex, UK
What I don't get is why there is suddenly a shortage when someone exhibiting symptoms needs one, but if a celebrity or politician so much as sniffles, a test magically appears.
Some people have been getting them privately, which could account for the celebrity tests. For ecample, a private doctor in London was sourcing them from a company making them in Ireland, and passing them on at something over £300. (The company itself sells them directly for £120, or did at the time.) Whether those tests are accurate, I'm not sure.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Vaz

Ursa major

Bearly Believable
Staff member
Supporter
Joined
Aug 7, 2007
Messages
21,469
Location
England
But we have the common law system, whereby limits and definitions are tested and settled only over hundreds of years
So even if a cure for Covid-19 is produced and distributed to us all by the end of tomorrow, none of us will live long enough to hear how such cases turn out...? ;):)
 

Ursa major

Bearly Believable
Staff member
Supporter
Joined
Aug 7, 2007
Messages
21,469
Location
England
a company making them in Ireland
There was a company in Ireland that was said to be the world's major producer of something to do with an aspect of the epidemic, its testing, its treatment or something like that, but I can't recall exactly what the company manufactures.
 

Jo Zebedee

Aliens vs Belfast.
Joined
Oct 5, 2011
Messages
17,526
Location
blah - flags. So many flags.
There was a company in Ireland that was said to be the world's major producer of something to do with an aspect of the epidemic, its testing, its treatment or something like that, but I can't recall exactly what the company manufactures.
Ah, Jaysus, it’ll have fallen off the back of a lorry. :D
In other news the self employed will be paid. Not for three months mind, but we’re used to that :D :D
 

Dave

Custom title not found
Staff member
Supporter
Joined
Jan 5, 2001
Messages
19,128
Location
Way on Down South, London Town
Confusion about whether you're allowed to drive to your place of exercise.
Not that it means anything for you but it's very clearly prohibited to drive somewhere for your exercise, here in France.
When we drove out of London today, I did think about the advice to "exercise locally," but my excuse is that the local parks are all full - did you see the pictures from Richmond Park at the weekend? Some London parks have been locked closed. While further away you don't see anyone else and don't have to avoid people by jumping off pathways into the trees. Then when I got back I saw the Derby-shire Police videos from the Peak District shaming people for "non-essential visits."

Personally, I think they should concentrate of the kind of behaviour that @dannymcg outlined rather than people out walking in the wild. The people at bus stops and in queues who are not social distancing. The people having BBQs with the neighbours. The people still taking their children into playgrounds that have "closed" notices up. (The virus can apparently stay active on hard surfaces for hours.) These are the more dangerous people.
 

AlexH

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jan 14, 2017
Messages
1,117
Location
Staffordshire, UK
Latest figures suggest UK death toll will be nowhere near that seen in Italy and Spain:

If you're interested how these figures were arrived at:
 

Brian G Turner

Fantasist & Futurist
Staff member
Supporter
Joined
Nov 23, 2002
Messages
23,585
Location
Highlands
No driving except for work or shopping:

Although the link is for Scotland, this followed one in England which I can't find at the moment - too many new stories knocking the older ones off the front page.
 

Venusian Broon

Defending the SF genre with terminal intensity
Supporter
Joined
Dec 7, 2011
Messages
4,437
Location
Edinburgh
Latest figures suggest UK death toll will be nowhere near that seen in Italy and Spain:

If you're interested how these figures were arrived at:
Sheesh, yet another non-peer reviewed model with assumptions that may or may not be right. :cautious::mad:

All taken with a good shaker of salt I'm afraid. On the tweet just below the one you link Alex, someone says 'look the trend is encouraging'...then we report 115 deaths in one day, that puts that 'encouraging' trend back to looking like the start of an exponential increase. So what does it mean? I read this as we still don't know.

I hope what it is hinting is true - that the total number deaths will not go extremely high in the UK, but I wish journalists would stop publicising tentative and theoretical projections and discussions like this, that may be useful for planners and those doing the science and making the decisions. But can easily be misread or misinterpreted by us public.

Because you know what is going to happen. A certain section of the public will go 'See, it's not that bad, 5000 is reasonably mild flu season. Let us back out to our pubs/parties, get the hoi polloi back out working so that my portfolio can recover.' etc. And then the infection rates will climb again and the death rates will go up again.

Let's see when the peak comes with the measures we have taken, and take it all a day at time.
 

Dave

Custom title not found
Staff member
Supporter
Joined
Jan 5, 2001
Messages
19,128
Location
Way on Down South, London Town
There is a lot of clapping and car horn tooting here just now. (y)

I have to say that my driving to exercise was combined with an attempt to go shopping from farm shops. Now that they don't seem to be selling anything, and that I've been suitably chastised, I'll exercise more locally from now on. However, I might have to wait most of my thirty minutes just to let other people past at a two metre distance.
 

Bagpuss

Shipwrecked & comatose - where's the mango juice?
Joined
Jan 9, 2017
Messages
182
my family in Louisiana sent me a news story with these startling statistics about how quickly the virus is spreading there:
The thing is: Are these cases of people who will require hospital intervention? Are these cases of people who will be absolutely fine? Are these cases of people who will die?

The problem with pure numbers is: it's not the number of cases that tell you anything about the infection, it's how those number are distributed over the three groups that explain how the disease develops.

In pure terms, yes the infection spreads quickly. Infections tend to do that. It's not surprising, the virus is extremely contagious. However, it seems to me that the numbers you present are cumulative rather than sequential. So on March 1 you have 1 case and on March 2 you have 5 new cases (deducting the first case on March 1) and so the March 26 figure is not 2,305 new cases, it's more like 600 new cases and 2,305 is the cumulative total for the month of March.

That would seem to be borne out by the general average death rate, which is that 5% of everyone admitted to hospital with this thing dies. That's not to say that 5% of everyone who contracts this disease dies - absolutely not. The actual death rate seems more like 0.7% of the total infected. That's not an insignificant number of people, but in your situation: 2,300 infected and in hospital would suggest a death rate of 115 people. If you currently have 85 deaths then New Orleans is doing better than average. Not that that's any consolation to you, your sister or the relatives of the deceased, and I'm not trying to make out that it is.

My sister works at a hospital in New Orleans,
My best wishes to your sister in this situation and I sincerely hope that she's ok.

if a celebrity or politician so much as sniffles, a test magically appears.
Yup.

So if she has the virus, the state will never acknowledge it because she's not sick enough to get tested. I can't help but feel that this is a poor method of containment.
Technically, it's not a method of containment. It's a method of assuming that she has it first and then proceeding on that assumption to make sure that she doesn't spread it to anyone else.
 

AlexH

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jan 14, 2017
Messages
1,117
Location
Staffordshire, UK
Sheesh, yet another non-peer reviewed model with assumptions that may or may not be right. :cautious::mad:

All taken with a good shaker of salt I'm afraid. On the tweet just below the one you link Alex, someone says 'look the trend is encouraging'...then we report 115 deaths in one day, that puts that 'encouraging' trend back to looking like the start of an exponential increase. So what does it mean? I read this as we still don't know.

I hope what it is hinting is true - that the total number deaths will not go extremely high in the UK, but I wish journalists would stop publicising tentative and theoretical projections and discussions like this, that may be useful for planners and those doing the science and making the decisions. But can easily be misread or misinterpreted by us public.

Because you know what is going to happen. A certain section of the public will go 'See, it's not that bad, 5000 is reasonably mild flu season. Let us back out to our pubs/parties, get the hoi polloi back out working so that my portfolio can recover.' etc. And then the infection rates will climb again and the death rates will go up again.

Let's see when the peak comes with the measures we have taken, and take it all a day at time.
It's based on a bit more than assumptions, but I get your point. I shared it because Imperial College are the ones informing the British Government on policy, so it's not just any study.
 

dannymcg

Well-Known Member
Joined
Sep 9, 2016
Messages
4,187
Location
Cumbria UK
My wife wanted to do the 'clap for health workers' thing.
At eight she went to our front door with the 4 year old, I opened the living room window and sat the 2 year old on the ledge and held him.
Right at eight ourselves and neighbours began this tribute.

Over the road is a cleared space where a number of houses were demolished years ago. Now it's just a grassy area. I was looking that way when the applause started, this guy was at the edge of it with his dog that was doing it's business.

He span around in surprise and saw all these people applauding as his spaniel did a poo, he clearly didn't know what was going on!
He was under a street light and I don't think I've ever saw such a confused and bewildered face in my life.

I almost dropped the kid from laughing as he hastily used the scoop bag and hurried away, applause continuing, while giving bemused looks over his shoulder.

I really hope it doesn't get mentioned tomorrow on whichever media he gets his news from, he'll always wonder why all these people clapped for him one night :LOL:
 

Venusian Broon

Defending the SF genre with terminal intensity
Supporter
Joined
Dec 7, 2011
Messages
4,437
Location
Edinburgh
It's based on a bit more than assumptions, but I get your point. I shared it because Imperial College are the ones informing the British Government on policy, so it's not just any study.
Every model we've ever made, and ever will, is based on assumptions, I'm afraid. :) What more can there be?

It has some real data too, but so did the last one. And I think it is just another study; it doesn't matter if they are informing British Government policy or not. Such studies are not rocket science (as the plethra of Youtube videos on building epidemic models shows!) But it is useful - only for those that are aware of the limitations of the data, what the model is assuming and where the assumptions are weak. And then how to use it help make decisions to get the best possible outcome.

Here, at least it feels to me, it is being used by Mr Vine as a scoop, and by doing this it makes it much easier to interpret wrongly.
 

Brian G Turner

Fantasist & Futurist
Staff member
Supporter
Joined
Nov 23, 2002
Messages
23,585
Location
Highlands

OHB

Crazed Writer
Joined
Jan 5, 2019
Messages
163
Location
somewhere in time and space
That would seem to be borne out by the general average death rate, which is that 5% of everyone admitted to hospital with this thing dies. That's not to say that 5% of everyone who contracts this disease dies - absolutely not. The actual death rate seems more like 0.7% of the total infected. That's not an insignificant number of people, but in your situation: 2,300 infected and in hospital would suggest a death rate of 115 people. If you currently have 85 deaths then New Orleans is doing better than average. Not that that's any consolation to you, your sister or the relatives of the deceased, and I'm not trying to make out that it is.
I think you misread my post. Of the 2,305 cases in Louisiana, 676 of them are hospitalized. That's 29% of all cases. Assuming that number includes the 83 who have died, that's 12% of those hospitalized (and 3.6% of those infected) who have died. If it doesn't include those who have died, then 33% of those infected are/were hospitalized, and 11% of those who were hospitalized have died. The entire state of Louisiana only has about 4.6 million people. The hospitals weren't designed to handle this many patients at once.
 
Top