Aliens vs Belfast.
- Oct 5, 2011
- blah - flags. So many flags.
Agreed! Big time problem with the % deal is that only people with recognizable symptoms are even tested to see if they have the virus, at least, here in the USA. It is possible, perhaps, probable, that far more people have the virus than just those with the symptoms. This might explain how it spreads to places where no known sufferers are. Therefore, throw out the percentage stuff, & focus on the fact that, for the most part, only those with weakened immune systems, pre-existing conditions (My sister-in-law is in remission from stage 4 lung cancer), need worry about death. Very likely, there will seem to be some exceptions. and people will be angry that their loved ones were among them.Hey @Kerrybuchanan, I found the paper after Danny nicely posted a link ...
Here's the problem with what they are saying.
They've curve-fitted their own model to the figures that they have on hand. And to quote them "Our overall approach rests on the assumption that only a small proportion of the population is at risk of hospitalisable illness."
So essentially, say, they have assumed a death rate of 0.1% say, while the Imperial model might have a much higher one at 1-2%. Fitting a curve to the lower 0.1% will necessarily mean that they must be a much bigger number infected earlier and throughout the period to justify the numbers of deaths we're seeing
Let's be clear. THEY DON'T KNOW. This mortality rate is unknown. We've been using the rate, up till now, that has come from China and is why it is so scary. I am sure you are aware there are a huge number of actual factors that will give a final figure for this.
I note that they state that the model says that by the time of the first death (5th March) thousands of individuals would have been infected - I think that's reasonable (my back of a beermat calculation had about 5000ish!)...but then they seem to have a very high infection spreading rate to justify this claim that up to 70% of the population may be infected by now - remember we've been (slowly, but surely) social distancing over March.
So is this model correct? I'm afraid we can't tell right at this moment. If we do extensive testing for the covid antibody response* amongst the general public and find a high figure have been in contact with the virus that they are suggesting or the number of hospitable cases dramatically reduces in the coming weeks (as after all if 70% of the population has already been exposed and climbing, the virus should quickly burn out.) then it's a better model.
If on the other hand their model is wrong, which equally well could be correct with all the info we've got at the moment, then we've got much longer to go and considerably more deaths to come.
So either we do massive public testing, which I think is probably impossible at the moment, or we take it a few weeks at a time and see if we are burning out the virus faster than expected.
Or we could take a risk that this theoretical paper is correct and relax sooner, but that might give a much deadlier disease a filip and cause the needless deaths of 10s or 100s of thousands of people.
Personally I'd bet on caution, keep the lockdown for the moment, processing the figures of hospitilised and deaths that are actually coming through and making judgements from them and other hard data. I'd love there to be some sort of mass testing as that would tell us a lot more, but there's probably a good reason why it just not possible right now.
Disclaimer, I am not a medical professional, nor experienced in running the health of a nation. Just someone using a smattering of maths, a bit of logic & common sense
* I am not aware that such a test currently exists, I think you can only test if you have the virus present in your body at the moment - I may be wrong, so take that with a pinch of salt. I'd also guess that there probably isn't enough to do mass tests anyway.
I was late getting the chicken pox; as I recall, I was in my early teens. Supposedly, made it much worse. Everything happens to me!Jeffbert. I remember our mothers when we were kids making sure we caught measles, mumps, chicken pox and anything else that was going round so that we would be immune as adults. I only recall getting shots for polio and isolation for scarlet fever which were both pretty serious.
Vaxination is fine by me and by its nature can go on working uptime but the problem is antibiotics, of which we have a limited and increasingly ineffective armoury.
You’re not alone. I’ve been fretting about this too, worrying about getting my mum’s shopping, knowing that one small mistake on my part could lead to her getting infected.It's doing my head in, I can't concentrate on reading, writing and sleeping has almost gone.
Well, given how much fresh fruit, meat and vegetables were bought up from the supermarkets last week, and that it couldn't possibly all have been eaten, there should be plenty.He said the zoo still needed people to donate any spare fruit and vegetables or unneeded pet food.
Same here, Danny. Osteopaths a lot younger than me are volunteering in the NHS supporting the staff. I'm in the high risk category by age...There's a lot of blokes like myself out there now.
Isolated and, for one health reason or another, regarded as 'not required' for any volunteering.
How much of a useless drone do we all feel?
At the very most we go to the shop for a few basics, very Kami-kazi of us!
"What did you do in 2020 granda?"
"Well, I looked out the window a lot"
"There came a point in the zombie plague where the increasing numbers of the Converted came to be seen as a good thing, since zombies needed no toilet paper, and so took the pressure off the stocks for everyone else."Prediction:
All the future fiction about plagues will have at least four mentions of toilet paper