Corona virus sense

Jeffbert

Well-Known Member
Joined
Dec 23, 2011
Messages
937
Hey @Kerrybuchanan, I found the paper after Danny nicely posted a link (y)...

Here's the problem with what they are saying.

They've curve-fitted their own model to the figures that they have on hand. And to quote them "Our overall approach rests on the assumption that only a small proportion of the population is at risk of hospitalisable illness."

So essentially, say, they have assumed a death rate of 0.1% say, while the Imperial model might have a much higher one at 1-2%. Fitting a curve to the lower 0.1% will necessarily mean that they must be a much bigger number infected earlier and throughout the period to justify the numbers of deaths we're seeing

Let's be clear. THEY DON'T KNOW. This mortality rate is unknown. We've been using the rate, up till now, that has come from China and is why it is so scary. I am sure you are aware there are a huge number of actual factors that will give a final figure for this.

I note that they state that the model says that by the time of the first death (5th March) thousands of individuals would have been infected - I think that's reasonable (my back of a beermat calculation had about 5000ish!)...but then they seem to have a very high infection spreading rate to justify this claim that up to 70% of the population may be infected by now - remember we've been (slowly, but surely) social distancing over March.

So is this model correct? I'm afraid we can't tell right at this moment. If we do extensive testing for the covid antibody response* amongst the general public and find a high figure have been in contact with the virus that they are suggesting or the number of hospitable cases dramatically reduces in the coming weeks (as after all if 70% of the population has already been exposed and climbing, the virus should quickly burn out.) then it's a better model.

If on the other hand their model is wrong, which equally well could be correct with all the info we've got at the moment, then we've got much longer to go and considerably more deaths to come.


So either we do massive public testing, which I think is probably impossible at the moment, or we take it a few weeks at a time and see if we are burning out the virus faster than expected.

Or we could take a risk that this theoretical paper is correct and relax sooner, but that might give a much deadlier disease a filip and cause the needless deaths of 10s or 100s of thousands of people.

Personally I'd bet on caution, keep the lockdown for the moment, processing the figures of hospitilised and deaths that are actually coming through and making judgements from them and other hard data. I'd love there to be some sort of mass testing as that would tell us a lot more, but there's probably a good reason why it just not possible right now.

Disclaimer, I am not a medical professional, nor experienced in running the health of a nation. Just someone using a smattering of maths, a bit of logic & common sense ;)

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* I am not aware that such a test currently exists, I think you can only test if you have the virus present in your body at the moment - I may be wrong, so take that with a pinch of salt. I'd also guess that there probably isn't enough to do mass tests anyway.
Agreed! Big time problem with the % deal is that only people with recognizable symptoms are even tested to see if they have the virus, at least, here in the USA. It is possible, perhaps, probable, that far more people have the virus than just those with the symptoms. This might explain how it spreads to places where no known sufferers are. Therefore, throw out the percentage stuff, & focus on the fact that, for the most part, only those with weakened immune systems, pre-existing conditions (My sister-in-law is in remission from stage 4 lung cancer), need worry about death. Very likely, there will seem to be some exceptions. and people will be angry that their loved ones were among them.



Life ain't fair! Deal with it!


The thing with this virus is that it is apparently more contagious than the regular ol' flu that has been around for years, and kills thousands, even tens of thousands each year. The panic started when people who live in unknown conditions were reported to be dropping like flies, & people assumed that others populations would also have similar numbers of deaths. Perhaps not.


Jeffbert. I remember our mothers when we were kids making sure we caught measles, mumps, chicken pox and anything else that was going round so that we would be immune as adults. I only recall getting shots for polio and isolation for scarlet fever which were both pretty serious.
Vaxination is fine by me and by its nature can go on working uptime but the problem is antibiotics, of which we have a limited and increasingly ineffective armoury.
I was late getting the chicken pox; as I recall, I was in my early teens. Supposedly, made it much worse. :cry: Everything happens to me! :LOL:


BEFORE I FORGET:

about political content: I was a mod on a certain forum about a certain cartoon character, and in the early days, political content was o.k. Eventually a few valued members left the forum, because they were offended by some of the posts. When the owner formed the mod group, we had discussions about such things, and it was decided that the forum was there for people interested in the cartoon character, and as that interest was common to us all, political views, being topics of fierce disagreement, were not welcome. Religion, likewise.

As Wile E. Coyote said to Bugs Bunny, "A wise decision, my friend. For, little do you know how you have saved yourself from a fate, worse than the frying pan."
 

Karn's Return

__________________
Joined
Oct 24, 2018
Messages
452
Location
Chocobo Races
There's plenty I could say here, but considering it would all violate the no-politics rule of the forums, I'll abstain from it.


What I can say, though, is that I believe we've learned a lot about not only ourselves on an individual level from this, but as a species, not the least of which is, how to prepare proper hygiene, and what kind of sacrifices we will voluntarily put ourselves through simply for the sake of the health and safety of others, in such a way that is never seen otherwise. (At least here in America. When our backs are to the wall, we Americans can really shine through for ourselves and for each other.)


As for other countries, I can only guess or imagine, based off what information has been able to come out from those areas. I feel bad for most people who have contracted this disease, and while I am and have been upset and bewildered at the hoarding and panicking people had done the first week, the fact that most actually had made the wise decision to voluntarily quarantine even before lockdowns came into place...well, sometimes fear and paranoia is a good thing.


That said, though, my brother-in-law works at UPS, so I'm constantly concerned for his health, especially since he and my sister have an eight-year-old daughter who is the absolute world to both families, but we've done our part with minimizing outings-my sister won't leave the house at all, even for supplies, opting instead online ordering.


There's a few markets this is actually helping as well. *cough*digital*cough*.
 

TheDustyZebra

Am I doing this right?
Staff member
Supporter
Joined
Nov 26, 2009
Messages
8,971
Location
Colorado
Colorado starts tomorrow morning on a "stay-at-home" order, but since I work at the hospital, I don't get to stay at home. Good for the bank account, bad for morale. :p We still don't have any positives in our county, as far as testing is concerned, but we're hardly testing anybody, so that's to be expected. Lots of people with symptoms, but since the treatment is the same as for the flu or any respiratory virus, the thinking is that it doesn't matter whether you know what you have or not, so save the tests for later when people need to know.

I really wish they'd figure out how to let me answer the clinic phones from home, though. (No, not really -- it'd be a huge pain in the butt.) What I wish is that they'd pay me to stay home.
 

Alex The G and T

Thar! That Blows.
Joined
Jan 25, 2012
Messages
2,518
Location
Extremely Northern California
The Great and Terrible wife, RN still works daily at a local clinic. Fortunately, for her seniority and current job description, she's working in an isolated, upstairs office "extracting" clinical records. (ie producing synopses for the physician's convenience)
Meanwhile, the clinic has triage tents in the parking lot. No patients are allowed inside; but for urgent hands-on treatments. Doctors are doing telephone consultations, where feasible, and such employees who's jobs can be conducted remotely are being equipped to work from home.

I can't worry about her exposure; because she has a lifetime experience with stringently observing infection control protocols. And through the decades when she was working with hands on patient care, she brought home hundreds of stories of horrifying putrescence and never once brought any disease home with her.
 
Last edited:

Foxbat

None The Wiser
Supporter
Joined
Jul 24, 2003
Messages
7,754
Location
Scotland
Some people still don’t get it. My uncle phoned my mum to say that my aunt was in bed coughing and spluttering and probably had the virus. My immediate thought on hearing this was that if she was spluttering, it probably wasn’t. He said he was going to pop along for a cuppa. My mum immediately told him not to and to stay where he was. :rolleyes:
 

-K2-

mƎ kn0w dUm!
Joined
Jun 19, 2018
Messages
1,403
Location
'Merica
I'm rather stoic, but like many people I've spoke with, every time you're reading/watching the news on this--especially when symptoms are mentioned--you go through the checklist.

Scratchy throat(y), tickle in nose(y), head has a dull ache(y), dry cough(y), feel tired(y), a little achy here or there(y)... OMG! I'm old!

Naturally then, however, you don't brush it off as you have for the past decade. You tense up, breathing becomes tougher as you panic, and every daily issue seems just a little bit worse. Fever? Everyone I've spoken with their temp is running 1-2 deg. F. BELOW normal...what's that all about?

I knew I shouldn't have chewed that gum I found under the table... :confused:

K2
 

Foxbat

None The Wiser
Supporter
Joined
Jul 24, 2003
Messages
7,754
Location
Scotland
It's doing my head in, I can't concentrate on reading, writing and sleeping has almost gone.
You’re not alone. I’ve been fretting about this too, worrying about getting my mum’s shopping, knowing that one small mistake on my part could lead to her getting infected.
So, let’s not forget our mental health. The toll is greater than physical and, even avoiding the virus does not mean we will all necessarily escape unscathed. We need to support each other both on this forum and out in the real world.

I was watching a woman yesterday, out with her little daughter, guiding the child away from an approaching person. I wonder what this will do to the development of the little ones who are living through this and probably struggling to understand what is happening.
 

Dave

Custom title not found
Staff member
Supporter
Joined
Jan 5, 2001
Messages
19,200
Location
Way on Down South, London Town
He said the zoo still needed people to donate any spare fruit and vegetables or unneeded pet food.
Well, given how much fresh fruit, meat and vegetables were bought up from the supermarkets last week, and that it couldn't possibly all have been eaten, there should be plenty.

I had hoped that the stockpiling would stop this week, once all the spare rooms were filled up to the ceiling. (Usually, if you are ill, your appetite is less too.) The supermarkets here have slowly begun to enforce a "few in, few out" system. I haven't been there myself, but reports are of lower queues and more back on the shelves. They still have no pasta, toilet roll or paracetamol. I've got a delivery of some painkillers and vitamin D tablets ordered online from Boots now, but it took a 5 hour wait to get onto the website, and then about five attempts at trying to pay for them. Other chemists have stopped taking online orders - even for those people on the NHS list, unless they are "existing online customers."
 
  • Like
Reactions: Vaz

Boneman

Well-Known Member
Joined
Nov 4, 2008
Messages
5,365
Location
Working with the Bare Bones of talent
There's a lot of blokes like myself out there now.
Isolated and, for one health reason or another, regarded as 'not required' for any volunteering.

How much of a useless drone do we all feel?

At the very most we go to the shop for a few basics, very Kami-kazi of us!

"What did you do in 2020 granda?"
"Well, I looked out the window a lot"
Same here, Danny. Osteopaths a lot younger than me are volunteering in the NHS supporting the staff. I'm in the high risk category by age...
 

pyan

Great Old One
Staff member
Supporter
Joined
Jul 29, 2005
Messages
9,167
Location
R'lyeh
I wonder why "Her Majesty's Men", as Charles II had been King for 4 years and there hadn't been a ruling Queen for 61 years.:unsure:
 

HareBrain

Smeerp of Wonder
Staff member
Supporter
Joined
Oct 13, 2008
Messages
10,850
Location
West Sussex, UK
Prediction:
All the future fiction about plagues will have at least four mentions of toilet paper
"There came a point in the zombie plague where the increasing numbers of the Converted came to be seen as a good thing, since zombies needed no toilet paper, and so took the pressure off the stocks for everyone else."
 
Top