@Brian G Turner ; I phrased that poorly. What I read (regarding climate change models...and I'm trying to remember it myself...and want to point out that I am NOT an expert but simply relaying what I read by others), stated that the climate models were wrong due to setting a model
target date of 2100, and then applying known/historical trends, generating a number(s), finally arriving at possible best and worst case results (for 2100).
The point you make about 'rate of change' which is a big part of the calculation. More so, the compounding acceleration aspect. In any case, the statement was (again from memory), was that 'the climate models and results (everyone uses as a discussion point) are wrong because the projected scenario for 2100 will actually happen by 2040, based on Greenland's current deglaciation state and rate.
In any case, I'd like to point out the video YOU presented roughly a year ago here:
Interesting to see this piece on the PETM - and how the warming then occurred at a slower rate than today:
What a fantastic video, one where
I have used information from it and other sources to 180-degree flip a number of hard-core climate deniers, to climate change believers.
Now, I might have this all wrong...but, it's worked on convincing them
What I present to those folks is as follows--in brief...
1. Our world has a miraculous system of thermally stabilizing itself and constantly improving.
1A. The stabilization aspect comes in the form of the circulation of the atmospheric convection cells, jetstreams, and oceanic conveyor belts. They each work in their own way like a giant cooling system. Taking the heat and moisture from here and moving it to cooler regions then bring it back, circulating and somewhat equalizing the global temperature. The system works on a massive scale, and can even address extremes...to a point.
1B. The constant improvement comes in the form of 'carbon based life.' Life on earth thrives on the consumption of carbon and by doing so helps the environment strip the carbon from the air which improves living conditions for the life. Plants strip carbon from the air, insects through animals eat the plants, then each other. With the carbon consumed, it is then put into the ground to keep it out of the atmosphere through expelled waste and ultimately the full cycle of life (death and plant cycles). IOW the carbon cycle.
2. I then mention the information contained in the video, specifically the PETM, but more so what it took for it to happen... carbon released into the atmosphere during the PETM, at a rate of 1.7 billion Mtons at its peak, over 4,000 years...........although, I use sugar cubes as my example so they get a visual.
3. I then go back to item 1, and remind them at the end of the PETM, that mass of plants and other life perished as the cycle dictates, taking all that carbon back into the ground. That's a big point, get the carbon out of the atmosphere, and get rid of it in the ground where it is meant to stay for the climate/environment to keep 'improving.' Naturally, that carbon based matter eventually turns into coal, oil, and gas...methane included.
4. At that point I briefly discuss crossing a threshold limit where there is a positive feedback loop (to the negative). Plants stop taking in CO2 when stressed and begin giving it off. Plants die and reduce the carbon stripping even further, other life perishes reducing the rate of putting the carbon in the ground. Stored methane (much more potent than CO2) begins being released, and so on...whereupon the fantastic world radiator begins to falter, etc. etc... and it all falls apart at an accelerating rate.
Full stop for a moment, at which point they dwell on it and shrug... So what?
5. In the last 100 years roughly (to the greatest degree), we have been extracting millions of years of stored carbon--and--putting it right back into the air, counter to and directly opposing the vast benefit of carbon based life.
6. I mention item 2 again,
peak rate of 1.7B Mtons/4,000 years... then mention from that video in 2014 ALONE we put 9.8B Mtons into the atmosphere... 1.7 peak rate over 4,000---9.8 peak rate over 100, and it's clear there is a problem.
7. I then mention that there is 1,400B Mtons of methane (much worse than CO2) trapped in permafrost, and then describe the loss there as the world warms and how it's thawing extremely far north round the world. Reminding them about that interesting polar forest and it's put in the ground carbon is what is looking at getting released (to keep their minds on the carbon cycle).
Etc.. What finally made it click for these folks is mentioning the 'radiators' of the planet, the carbon cycle, and how we have been taking all that carbon and putting it back into the air. That was enough... then it was a matter of getting them to not just throw their hands up and say it's hopeless. That we can slow the cycle, and give the world a chance to do its thing.
BTW... if you watch that video, it's very interesting how the poles are affected more (see a more dramatic change) than the equator/overall. To me, right or wrong, that says the events we're seeing N&S is a more dramatic indicator (tip of the needle on the dial) than where most of us live, which is what most people want to go by.
Anywho, it has worked on changing a few minds. And lord knows, that's a bigger thing to change than the climate.
K2
