The list of considered hypothetical explanations of Fermi paradox is long (e.g. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox), and I would rather imagine a probability distribution in a hypothetical "chronicle of extinct civilizations"
I've been looking into quite a lot of Fermi Paradox stuff. That list is a bit small
My initial thoughts were that the situation you're positing is quite a late explanation for the 'Great Filter' - we are almost at the point where we can analyse the atmospheres of exo-planets and therefore gain some harder evidence of the existence or not of sentient life (not conclusive, but much better than we thought only decades ago). Well, as long as the James Webb Telescope actually gets up there...
Hence I'd suggest that if the Great Filter is the explanation for the Fermi Paradox, then the 'Great Wall' that's stopping civilisations is, in human terms, much earlier in our history - my guess on current evidence stopping virtually any civilisations developing. These technical extinctions that require a civilisation to develop the means to wipe themselves are too late in my eyes as an explanation.
But the main issue with the Great Filter is that it needs to be so watertight to explain the silence, it starts to seem a bit unfeasible. We just need one civilisation to 'pass all the tests' in the galaxy (I believe we have a good estimate of between 20-40 billion earth-like habitats in the Milky Way, and there of course could be a whole host of other habitats where life flourishes where we have not discovered) be expansive and effectively colonise the entire galaxy in a geological blink of an eye.
- the question is if mirror life is worth adding to such a list, trying to estimate its probability for civilization extinction ... and if it should be considered as a possible danger in development of our civilization?
Of course, totally agree. It's a sort of slow 'Grey goo' scenario.
We are probably pretty far from that, but does it mean 10 years? 100? 1000? In all these cases it is nearly negligible in cosmological timescale - if it is not preventable (?), maybe many civilizations could already extinct this way (?) ... or accidentally through some other synthetic life. We know many cases of invasive species replacing the original ones, and a completely new microbe would try out a countless number of interactions, some of them might turn out more successful than the existing ones - finally dominating ecosystem.
Of course, evolution is blind and if a form of life appears with a significant advantage in the conditions prevalent it will survive. Look at the arrival of photosynthesising cyanobacteria that (eventually, they had to work hard!) paved the way for oxygen breathing life.
Regarding building safeguards, microorganisms have extremely fast evolution - can we design safeguards which cannot be removed by evolution?
It's all a bit in the air I'm afraid! We can't know, till we get to that point. You can be all doomsday about it and point out all the negatives, but...what if by the time we are actually able to construct a mirror cell, we are so advanced, any such spillage or escaping organism is so inconsequential because of our much more advanced knowledge and technology. It could then just be like wiping a lab bench down.
Making a fresh cell ("
It Lives!") is a bit like AI research. A lot of people believe it will happen within mere years, but I think it's going to be a lot longer than most people think. Yes, in cosmological terms tiny, but if even it was 100 years for creating mirror cells (which I might say, if I'm being positive), who's to say what else we'll come up with along with it - even just the knowledge and engineering to get that cell.
So here's the thing. If a mirror cyanobacteria was to fall out of the sky, hit the ocean and start breeding
today. Yeah, we're probably f**ked. But we're talking about us developing it and it's not going to come any time soon.
Also manufacturing "antidote" seems an impossible task - e.g. seas are literally filled with cyanobacteria, a single mirror version could replicate and finally dominate the seas as natural enemies of the original ones would have compatibility issues - how to stop such process after it already began?
Re: above! When making a cell itself seems an impossible task, in the first place, whose to say what sort of engineering and techniques will be available to us when it is possible. It may be very easy to clear this up. How can one compare two impossible tasks against each other
Indeed mirror life also brings lots of ideas for SF stories, e.g. start of synthesizing of mirror humans - incompatible with most of our pathogens, but also probably toxic ... or meeting of civilizations based on opposite chirality ...
Personally, I am starting to warm to the idea that advanced civilisations
should tend towards developing Dyson swarms around their suns. Planets are so passé! With a full Dyson swarm (probably constructed using the material of the planets orbiting the sun, but that's not necessary - plenty more material from the star itself) there'll be billion of times more area for life to flourish, compared to an Earth sized ecosystem. In space like that there will be plenty of room for leftie and rightie chirality organisms to peacefully co-exist!
