Scotland to get own spaceport

[Christine Wheelwright]

.......and, at least for the foreseeable future, will probably continue to be so expensive as to be self-limiting regarding the number of passengers.

Well, there is a lot of money floating around out there in the private sector! And we may talk about the super-rich as the '0.1%', but 0.1% of 1 billion people is 10 million. I think the only self-limitation will be the challenge of building the rockets to satisfy demand. Selling tickets will not be a problem. And it will certainly become a major contributor to pollution and greenhouse emissions. But, as usual, we are going to drift into this and only start to question it when it is already well established.

And, by the way, all this talk of manned Mars missions exists only to keep the public enthusiastic (and to stroke the egos of certain entrepreneurs). Nobody is seriously working on any of that.

 

[Dan Jones]

I accept that is the case right now. But I suspect joy rides up to 100km (arbitrarily designated as 'space') will become a major money-making industry within the next ten years and the resulting number of launches will be enormous. Curious if you agree.

Such 'joy-ride' spacecraft would be much too big for small space ports like this one and, at least for the foreseeable future, will probably continue to be so expensive as to be self-limiting regarding the number of passengers.

Joyride is a curious term, not one that I would use as a professional! @Vertigo is right, the sort of market you're working in dictates the type of launcher and launch service you need. Space tourism (not joyriding!) would require bigger launch vehicles, bigger than can be feasibly launched from the UK. Where the UK will be very well placed will be in the small satellite market, which is growing quite a bit.

I see space tourism as still rather kitschy and too niche to become truly huge, and definitely so within your ten year timeframe (is that figure taken from anywhere or a random figure?). But I'm sure there will be more launches, but building space infrastructure in space is still governed by space infrastructure on the ground, and currently it's still difficult to envisage more large launch sites being built at pace given the investment required. There just aren't that many viable sites. So the amount of launches for new markets such as tourism isn't likely to change much IMHO. And, given that Russia is now international persona non grata and Space City in Kazakhstan will be hors de combat from a western perspective, it could be that launches actually decrease, at least in the short term.

I do see the offshoots of space access technology (ie launch) as being important in other ways, such as spinning off viable technologies for more terrestrial sectors such as transport. Could be that hypersonics technologies, developed by some space companies, could create sub-orbital transport systems that would enable somebody to travel from, say, the UK to Australia, in 2-4 hours. We shall see!

 

[Christine Wheelwright]

The ten years is just off the top of my head. But I think within ten - maybe fifteen - years we will be seeing significant numbers of space tourism launches (why can't I call them joyrides?). I'm talking more than one per day. There is a profitable business there for sure. Regarding the sub-orbital travel; sure it is feasible. But I think the initial demand will be for the experience of going to space (if you think of it as space) rather than knocking a few hours off conventional flight time.

 

[Dan Jones]

You may well be right. If more launch platforms and launch vehicles appear, and launch scheduling permits, then it could well be a moneyspinner, and you never know, it could even be a repeat of the growth of the aviation sector in the early 20th century, from BOAC to Easyjet. Maybe in sixty years it'll become as readily available as aviation is today? I've no idea.

You're absolutely right - the sheer thrill of going to space should be enough to if not sustain, then at least maintain interest in, what is a very nascent industry. I'm just saying it depends on other factors, too.

(why can't I call them joyrides?)

Ok this might be a case of being lost in translation - "joyride" has a very negative connotation in the UK, of criminals stealing cars and driving them until they're destroyed!

 

[AnyaKimlin]

Well fingers crossed - wife is about to have the final round of interviews for a job to be a programmer for Orbex (the company making shuttles).

 

[Robert Zwilling]

Inside the space hotel scheduled to open in 2025
Instead of building it and people will show up, it looks like the scenario here is announce it, people will buy in to it, then it gets built.
The company, Orbital Assembly Corporation, is advertising that they will have a small space hotel in operation by 2025. It will be 60 rooms and accommodate 27 people. The big hotel is scheduled to open in 2027 and will hold 400 people. The artificial gravity system has not been built yet, it is in the planning stages only, no real idea if it will work as planned. It looks like fixing all the bugs in the small hotel will supply the plans for building the big hotel. The gravity on the smaller hotel would be be much less powerful than on the big hotel.

 

[Dan Jones]

Inside the space hotel scheduled to open in 2025
Instead of building it and people will show up, it looks like the scenario here is announce it, people will buy in to it, then it gets built.
The company, Orbital Assembly Corporation, is advertising that they will have a small space hotel in operation by 2025. It will be 60 rooms and accommodate 27 people. The big hotel is scheduled to open in 2027 and will hold 400 people. The artificial gravity system has not been built yet, it is in the planning stages only, no real idea if it will work as planned. It looks like fixing all the bugs in the small hotel will supply the plans for building the big hotel. The gravity on the smaller hotel would be be much less powerful than on the big hotel.

That looks very cool, but I'll be gobsmacked if they manage to build that by 2027 (the article states 2027, not 2025). Maybe 2030s?

 

[Christine Wheelwright]

Inside the space hotel scheduled to open in 2025
Instead of building it and people will show up, it looks like the scenario here is announce it, people will buy in to it, then it gets built.
The company, Orbital Assembly Corporation, is advertising that they will have a small space hotel in operation by 2025. It will be 60 rooms and accommodate 27 people. The big hotel is scheduled to open in 2027 and will hold 400 people. The artificial gravity system has not been built yet, it is in the planning stages only, no real idea if it will work as planned. It looks like fixing all the bugs in the small hotel will supply the plans for building the big hotel. The gravity on the smaller hotel would be be much less powerful than on the big hotel.

Robert, I hope you won't think I'm being rude, but this is complete nonsense! I can assure you that these people have absolutely no idea how to build a hotel in space by 2027. Likely they are putting all their money into graphics to demonstrate their fantasy, trying to get people excited and grab some attention. Sometimes these people are scammers and sometimes fantasists who actually believe their own hype. I have no idea.

Bear in mind that car manufacturers are already well into development of models that will be on the roads in 2027. If you plan to have a decent size ship operating by 2027 then you would need to be well down the design and procurement route by now (at least a couple of years into it).

 

[Robert Zwilling]

Yes, I realize all that. I saw the "trailer" from this company on the news like it was going to happen tomorrow. Yeah, right. Reminded me of the Disney animations back in the 60's where it was presented as if living in space was just around the corner. Looks more like a blatant attempt to raise money in order to do it in the first place. I guess people would be buying tickets with no set date to use it. The article seemed to be saying that the small hotel would be a fun place to go to because the artificial gravity wasn't going to keep you on your feet. The big hotel is oll2027, would you believe 2037 as Maxwell Smart used to say. The little hotel is just (drum roll) 3 years away, which is 2025.

I looked up what other countries were up to as far as planning on building in space. The Chinese have plans for a solar power station in geosynchronous orbit that would beam power back to Earth. They figure it will take 100 payloads to get their equipment up into space. The US has the same kind of scenario with the same estimate of 100 payloads. I don't even think there is a practical set up built that will wirelessly transmit power over long distances. Maybe someone did end up with Telsa's notes on how to stop the beam from diverging as it goes through the atmosphere.

If getting the stuff into space is the bottleneck, I guess we won't have long to see if Musk is all talk about shipping stuff into space on his space cargo ships. It sure seams like people will try to start building stuff in space sooner rather than later, using other people's money and lives. Maybe it is just another way of getting people to invest in things that are still a long way off. The US has a space navy with no ships, but a wonderful benefits set up, including a retirement package. I think there were a lot of failed efforts to colonize far off countries when Europe first started outfitting ships to make the long ocean trips to the newly discovered lands. This could be the same thing all over again. Except this time around, we will be able to see the people disappear instead of just losing contact with them.

 

[Christine Wheelwright]

I think my all time favorite space scam was that outfit a few years ago who declared they were going to Mars. I can't remember what they called themselves. Instead of taking the obvious approach (hiring 3,000 skilled engineers across various disciplines, investing an initial $10B and working for 30 years on developing and testing the required spacecraft and associated tech) they decided the most urgent thing was to hold a competition to recruit some young astronauts. And they were taken seriously!