The Laptop is Dead?

Remember how the laptop was going to kill the desktop? Didn't happen. The iPad and tablets were going to kill laptops - didn't happen. Laptops will continue to be manufactured and sold because there are no current reasonable alternatives in many businesses, schools, hospitals etc. Phones and tablets are not viable alternatives.

Anything that doesn't run Windows faces immediate hurdles for non consumer related sales.

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Vladd67 said:
The laptop is dead | The Passive Voice | A Lawyer's Thoughts on Authors, Self-Publishing and Traditional Publishing
So is the laptop about to go the same way as the desktop?
Mind you I like being able to just open up my laptop, on my lap, and off I go, having to plug in an extra screen and keyboard would mean having to sit at a table of some sort.
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Seems like a premature conclusion. Even the desktop is still kicking among gaming and rig-building enthusiasts.
Carrying a briefcase of peripherals for a smartphone instead of a lightweight laptop would be a step in the wrong direction.
 
I'm still using a desktop most of the time (and still running Vista ;) ) otherwise I have Kindle Fire if needed, though I find it more fiddly to use.
 
Much of his argument is based on the poor reception given to Apple's last attempt and he seems to to be blind to (or deliberately ignores) the design flaws as the reason. Instead, he appears to conclude that Apple failed so everybody else will too.

Personally, I don't like tablets and I don't suppose I'm alone so I think there will always be a market of some size for the laptop as far as I can see.

Remember when they said Vinyl was finished as a musical medium? A few hats should be well and truly eaten by now on that one and I expect the same with this laptop argument.
 
The laptop will be with us for some time to come, as well as the desktop. There are just too many applications that require what you can't get in a tablet form factor.
 
I'm just wondering when designer personal computers will come along. You know the kind of thing - like having designer suits to wear. Then you could have computers reflecting the personality of the owner. And that would include laptops, if only to reflect retro fashion!
 
Modular machine have been tried a number of times - including more recently modular phones.

Designer laptops / desktops already exist, they are generally gaming rigs build by enthusiasts, (water cooling and LED lighting and that sort of thing) for those that don't care what is inside a PC / laptop there are various skins and decals.

Much like clothes, most people care only for appearance and not for the insides.
 
I regularly use a Windows 8.1 laptop and a Windows 7 "all-in-1" desktop.

I did buy a cheap tablet (together with a mini-keyboard attachment) for use at the 2015 Eastercon. I don't recall switching it on since then.
 
Well, I have every option discussed so far in my home and actively use all of them.

1. My largest device is a floor standing tower capable of synchronous video editing and 3d animation in realtime. I have yet to find anything portable capable of shoveling half as much coal as this box can.

2. Next is a laptop that built out of the functional remains of three laptops that other family members more or less wore out. This is my commuting companion for writing and editing whilst sat on the train for 60 mins each way each day.

3. I-Pad 2 used for when I fancy doing some extreme couch surfing or streaming to my television set. I do have an external bluetooth keyboard for it but I very rarely use it.

4. My beloved and ultrareliable Samsung Note3 Phablet. This is always in my pocket and an invaluable help for note taking in business meetings. I use the stylus based handwriting recognition function. I even wrote a 5000 word piece of fictional writing whilst sat on a plane for 2 hours.

Each and every one of these devices has its niche where it is the outstanding best choice. Outside their comfort zones they all begin to struggle. Nevertheless, the phablet is still the most versatile. With the addition of a 15000 mAh power pack it can run all day and (with the notable exception of the tower's raw power) accomplish everything the others can and still fit in my trouser pocket.
 
Ergonomics is likely to keep the desktop around for a very long time.

The ability to have a larger physical and responsive keyboard; the ability to move screen and keyboard independent of each other; the ability to use a mouse; the ability to have the screen more than arms length away etc... All these things and more will keep the desktop around for a very very long time even as tablets become more and more powerful.


This is to say nothing of games and software which requires a proper full bodied desktop; heck as said above evne simple software like typing programs are easier to use on a desktop and physical setup. You can touch-type far faster on a physical keyboard than on a digital screen with touchscreen.


What we are approaching is a point of saturation where the consumer market is basically over-saturated with short term products that are fast running out of ways to force repeat buys. Once we hit that full saturation point with any product there is inevitable fall off in sales. It doesn't mean the market is over; just that the glut of sales are done with and that volume is going to give way to slower sales.
Digital cameras have hit this very quickly as the casual market has gobbled up phones and tablets and are quite happy with phone snaps of their friends for facebook. So cameras have slowed in sales; they still sell; people still want them but they are not the new thing to keep upgrading and for casual use you've got your phone.



Laptops won't go away; hybrid tablet/laptops might take over eventually but otherwise the tablet can't beat the traditional laptop for power. It's a physical constraint both on what can be physical fitted into a tablet and on heat generation and cycling of air. Another aspect is ease of access to machines at work/study zones - most universities and even many schools now have ample dedicated machines so there's less pressure to have your own. Internet gaming has also taken over and many modern games don't even have local area network capacity - it all goes through the internet so there's even less pressure in that niche market for dedicated gaming laptops.



I think also there's going to be times where simple tech survives. Consider how many people still like a watch because it does one thing only; or how many of us like e-readers for that same simplicity. There's great boons to all-in-one approaches and as they get better and better those all-inclusive tech options will become very popular. But I think that alongside there will still be a market for simpler tech and alternative options - the real pressure comes if you get something like an iPod that basically destroys competition and dominates a market heavily. That, to me, is the real risk. MP3 players show that iPods still sell but almost all the other competition is dead save for cheaper brand options that are ok but not outstanding.

Granted MP3 players also go hit as phones got larger memory capacities, but to me it also shows that when a single company dominates a market its generally detrimental to the long term health of that market sector.
 
Charles Gull said:
Well, I have every option discussed so far in my home and actively use all of them.
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Me too. We have four people in our house, and the computing includes a gaming desktop, two regular desktops, one Mac desktop, a laptop with Windows 7, two iPads and an android tablet, not to mention the phones. We're pretty cheaped-out on the phones, though. Oh, and apparently we'll be adding a Chromebook in the next few months, for the boy's birthday and for him to use for school stuff on the fly.
 
One possible halfway house is machines in the style of the Microsoft Surface (and there are a fair number of much cheaper similar machines); a machine with a detachable keyboard containing such things as HDMI (probably mini-HDMI) port and a couple of USB ports, which might also be the miniature version.
 
For many years I have had the pleasure of fielding the question

'Hey Charles, you know about computers, which one should I buy?'

I invariably answer in the same way.

'There are two universal approaches to buying a computer:
1. MAX. You set a maximum budget and search for the maximum capability at that price level.
2. MIN. You decide exactly which features and functions you need as a minimum and find the cheapest thing that can do all that.'
If you have the time, take both the Max and Min routes. Invariably you end up with two different results. The further apart they are, the less clear your own thoughts on what it is you want the thing to do for you are.
At the end of the day, a computer is a tool. Hammers tend to make very poor scalpels. Each task has its own sweet spot in terms of ideal tool.
 
I think laptops, especially 2in1 are resurgent. Asus just released a strong looking catalogue of laptops. The problem for Apple in both computing and mobile is that the competition has caught up, Windows and Android are more flexible OS.

I have just purchased(on sale) the Lenova Yoga Book 10.1". It has a Halo keyboard on a 360 hinge. So far the typing experiance is ok, but my desktop will always be the go to machine for heavy duty work.
 
Foxbat said:
Much of his argument is based on the poor reception given to Apple's last attempt and he seems to to be blind to (or deliberately ignores) the design flaws as the reason. Instead, he appears to conclude that Apple failed so everybody else will too.
Click to expand...

Apple failed because it's apple, sorry, but they just don't cut it. They have never given a damn about the experience of using their products outside the factory tested environment and the sales office. I know all their marketing baloney, but they are yet to produce a product good for tinkering, and human nature, once comfortable with something, is to tinker. Hell, they don't even have a product good for addition of products outside apple, and since apple don't make printers or scanners or copiers or any of their own god damned computer hardware, they are doomed to endlessly fail.

They are yet to produce an original or an innovative product. I remember the first time I used a real tablet computer. It was 1995. And the ipad still has not caught up to that product. Apple's continuing failure to deliver has nothing to do with the state of the industry, the technology, or the user. The desktop and the laptop are both still strong, and no apple product will ever be capable of changing that.
 
Apple is all about marketing and nothing more.
Especially within their i-tech range of products they are far more about marketing and making each release the new hype. They also work; the ipod dominated the mp3 market; the ipad has dominated the tablet market etc...

For me the problem is that I've never really liked Apple's interface approach; its very much an interface for novices who like the machine to do everything how it wants with little customising or input from the user. Ideal for the average person, but annoying for those who know a little more.
 
I seriously question Apple's "Domination" in both cases. Do you have some figures to show? My experience being both part of the market, and many, many years selling the products during the height of the ipod's success, would differ greatly from that opinion. I believe in both cases the actual sales when all players are counted to closely mirror the iphone, which currently has around 15% market share. Hardly dominating it. (by all players I include the badgeless/rebadged Chinese products along with the big boys, as they did and do hold a huge uncounted share).
 
All I know is that whenever I've searched for mp3 players in the past there are rather slim pickings; granted part of that was smart phones killing the market; but still a lot of what I saw was ipods on sale. Granted I'm buying rather than selling.

And yes the Chinese "no name brands" certainly have a strong market presence but often are a bit hit and miss in quality
 
Hit and miss went for most of them, in my experience. Return numbers were similar for most brands, no one product stood out as more reliable - I had to send back roughly the same percentage across them all.

I agree, smart phones have impacted a range of products. Cameras for example, though I read something recently about DSLR sales going up as people skip the cheaper cameras which sit between their phone and a dslr in image quality. The phone has taken that happy snap market, and those who get the photography bug then don't settle for a regular camera, because they spent so much on a phone to fit that need. I'd be interested in those figures, to see if the theory bares out.

Who knows where the thing will shift next? A new apple iPen, with a retractable OLED screen inside it, as phone, camera, tablet pc, torch, laser pointer, stylus and writing implement? I've wanted one of those for twenty years, even since Mihoshi had one on Tenchi!
 
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