What if Pearl Harbor failed?

US planes dropped messages which basically said "Surrender now, look at what just happened in Hiroshima" but that had little apparent effect.
Actually, the leaflets alluding to Hiroshima, although labeled Aug 6 by the Truman Library, apparently were actually composed after the Russian declaration of war, and weren't dropped until AFTER Nagasaki. The earlier LeMay leaflets explicitly listed cities that were likely to be bombed but Hiroshima and Nagasaki were NOT listed. In both cases, I think the intent was righteous, but the execution was faulty.
 
Actually, the leaflets alluding to Hiroshima, although labeled Aug 6 by the Truman Library, apparently were actually composed after the Russian declaration of war, and weren't dropped until AFTER Nagasaki. The earlier LeMay leaflets explicitly listed cities that were likely to be bombed but Hiroshima and Nagasaki were NOT listed. In both cases, I think the intent was righteous, but the execution was faulty.

I saw some copies of the leaflets in the Nagasaki Peace Park museum, but I don't believe the exhibit showed the date on which they were dropped. Nagasaki was a last minute target of course, with Kitakyushu being the original one.
 
Nagasaki was a last minute target of course, with Kitakyushu being the original one.
"Last minute" in the sense that it was designated as the ALTERNATE target if atmospheric or tactical conditions made Kokura (now a part of Kitakyushu) inadvisable, an option the mission commander exercised, not in the sense of being unplanned for, nor in any sense that would excuse not mentioning it in the leaflets listing cities that might be bombed. It went on the list of possible A-bomb targets on 25 July. The preferred target, Kokura, wasn't listed in the leaflets either AFAIK.

I doubt this was intentional. The people preparing the leaflets were warning of conventional bombing. The cities on those leaflets WERE bombed. But the A-bomb people wanted cities that hadn't been damaged much so they could better measure the effects. Consequentially cities that weren't on the regular target list, and hence not in the leaflets, headed the A-bomb list.
 
"Last minute" in the sense that it was designated as the ALTERNATE target if atmospheric or tactical conditions made Kokura (now a part of Kitakyushu) inadvisable, an option the mission commander exercised, not in the sense of being unplanned for, nor in any sense that would excuse not mentioning it in the leaflets listing cities that might be bombed. It went on the list of possible A-bomb targets on 25 July. The preferred target, Kokura, wasn't listed in the leaflets either AFAIK.

Right. Kitakyushu is a collective 'city' made up of what were industrial townships (literally meaning "North Kyushu"), though I doubt they were very separate even then.

I don't know the exact route the plane took, but assuming it was a southern arc, there wouldn't be much between Kitakyushu and and Nagasaki worth striking, with Saga being mostly flat farmland. With the Mitsubishi shipyards in Nagasaki it was an understandable target, though ironically ground zero was a prison where some foreigners were kept.
 
My understanding is that they didn't have additional bombs ready, though in another few weeks more could have been available. They weren't being built off of an assembly line.

As I understand it, they were preparing to drop the third bomb until the President vetoed it, and would have produced another one every month after that. I'm sure it's mentioned in The Making Of The Atomic Bomb.
 
. . . they were preparing to drop the third bomb until the President vetoed it, and would have produced another one every month after that.
HST did NOT veto another bomb. He only ordered that another bombing be confirmed with him before the plane left the ground. They were building them as fast as they could and expected to finish another one in 10 days or so, with another 6 over the next 2 months.
 
Yes, it is, but the assertion was "the President vetoed it", not that he had the power to veto it. He did NOT veto it. That decision would have been made when the next bomb was ready, expected to be around the 19th. But they surrendered first.

President Truman wanted the war ended . If a 3rd bomb had been necessary, he would have used it with no qualms at all.
 
HST did NOT veto another bomb. He only ordered that another bombing be confirmed with him before the plane left the ground.

According to Rhodes, quoting the Secretary of Commerce:

"Truman said he had given orders to stop the atomic bombing. He said the thought of wiping out another 100,000 people was too horrible. He didn't like the idea of killing, as he said, "all those kids"."

However, I just closed the book and lost the page that was on :).

That said, it doesn't make a tremendous amount of sense considering conventional bombing raids were killing tens of thousands at a time.
 
According to Rhodes, quoting the Secretary of Commerce:

"Truman said he had given orders to stop the atomic bombing. He said the thought of wiping out another 100,000 people was too horrible. He didn't like the idea of killing, as he said, "all those kids"."
Presumably you are quoting the 1986 book published by Simon & Schuster by the novelist and journalist Richard Rhodes. Well, without context, I don't know if Mr. Rhodes was being deliberately misleading or not. I'm pretty sure this comes from Henry Wallace's diary entry on the cabinet meeting of 10 August. AFAIK, there is no transcript of the meeting. Also, AFAIK, Wallace is the only one present at the meeting who ever made this claim. There were lots of other diarists in the military and in the administration and AFAIK none of them ever claimed the prez gave such an order.

What Wallace wrote CHARACTERIZES what he alleged HST said but for the most part does not quote it. The only words he actually quotes were "all those kids". The problematic sentence:
"Truman said he had given orders to stop atomic bombing."

Wallace may have INTERPRETED whatever HST said that way, but there is no evidence that I know of that anyone in the chain of command had received any order remotely like that other than the one I've already mentioned - that the next bombing mission was to get explicit last minute authorization from POTUS, before taking off, nor AFAIK has anyone in a position to know of such an order made such a claim. The added requirement for last minute POTUS clearance in no way affected the preparations. Nor did anyone else ever claim that HST gave any indication that he had pre-decided NOT to ok the third bomb if it came down to it.

In contrast there is plenty of evidence from people who WERE in the loop that preparations for additional bombing continued up until it was clear that the surrender was real and that the people doing the surrendering were in control. Examples:

Here you can read a transcript of a conversation between General Hull and Colonel Seeman of Grove's staff, partly in modern type in html and more completely in a pdf containing photographs of the original typewritten transcript dated 13 August 1945:

The Third Shot and Beyond (1945)

If HST had already "vetoed" a 3rd bomb, obviously these people would have known about it. Clearly their discussion does not even consider the possibility of NOT dropping more bombs absent unconditional surrender. They are instead, discussing times of availability and possible uses, particularly the possibility of shifting from more strategic targets to possible tactical targets in support of an invasion.

Here is a memo from Groves to Marshall on 10 Aug 45 indicating plans to drop a bomb during "the first suitable weather after 17 or 18 August":
http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB162/67.pdf

At the time of the surrender, the next bomb was in already in transit to where it would fly from. Paul Tibbets in a 2002 interview said:

"See, the first bomb went off and they didn't hear anything out of the Japanese for two or three days. The second bomb was dropped and again they were silent for another couple of days. Then I got a phone call from General Curtis LeMay [chief of staff of the strategic air forces in the Pacific]. He said, "You got another one of those damn things?" I said, "Yessir." He said, "Where is it?" I said, "Over in Utah." He said, "Get it out here. You and your crew are going to fly it." I said, "Yessir." I sent word back and the crew loaded it on an airplane and we headed back to bring it right on out to Trinian and when they got it to California debarkation point, the war was over."
- from an interview published in The Guardian (a Brit newspaper), full text archived here:
Nuclear special: Why the pilot of the Enola Gay has no regrets

If you prefer secondary sources this is from "Five Days in August:
How World War II Became a Nuclear War" by Michael D. Gordin who is the Rosengarten Professor of Modern and Contemporary History at Princeton University published by Princeton University Press in 2007:

"Almost nobody before 14 August thought that two bombs would be sufficient: if the first bomb did not cause surrender, the American decision makers reasoned, then many would be required, at the very least a third bomb before the end of August, and likely several others before the scheduled invasion. . . .Discussion of target and timing for the Third Shot—most likely Tokyo on 19 August— proceeded actively both before and after Nagasaki. Such preparations continued even between surrender and the beginning of the American Occupation of Japan on 2 September, a transitional period when Allied forces feared that a militarist coup might restart hostilities. The Third Shot was a reality in progress until unconditional surrender—seen as the two bombs’ success—began the rapid and mostly unconscious process of expunging it from historical memory."

Against this kind of information we have the single diary entry of one slightly kooky (he dabbled in spiritualism for example) Secretary of Commerce who had never been in the military, whose expertise lay in farming, and who was in no way involved in war planning, paraphrasing, but not quoting, what he claimed Truman SAID he had done. Maybe he did say it. It's possible. HST was not a totally honest man. He often gave conflicting accounts of his own actions. See "Harry S. Truman: Advancing the Revolution" by Ralph Raico in "Reassessing the Presidency: The Rise of the Executive State and the Decline of Freedom" edited by John Denson, which BTW is one of the most persuasive essays arguing the bombing-Hiroshima-was-evil position I've seen. I have great respect for both Raico and Denson. They might even bring me around to their point of view.

But regardless of what was SAID, continuing to build bombs as fast as possible and preparing to drop them was what was DONE.
 
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Figures for Okinawa
Allied casualties - 12,500 listed killed or missing. 82000 casualties in total.
An estimated 110,071 Japanese soldiers killed.
It's estimated that between 30,000 and 100,000 civilians died. Some from mass suicides. Both sides shot at civilians indiscriminately.

I often wonder if a naval blockade would have been a better choice. The Allies could have continued to degrade what was left of the Japanese military through bombardment and bombing.

If the Allies had been prepared to wait then the nukes might not have been necessary. I tend to think that there was an element of politics involved and that Truman wanted the Soviets to see what the Americans had in their arsenal. Also, I don't think they'd want the USSR to make too many advances and therefore went for a swift conclusion to the war.

I agree, and the example of what the Russians did in eastern Europe certainly supports an argument that it was important to keep the USSR from getting a toehold -- or more -- in the Japanese archipelago. I have no doubt that the upper echelons of U.S. leadership were fully aware, by spring of 1945 if not earlier, that they could not afford to let Russia have any more; with the USSR then apparently in total control of the Chinese mainland, Japan had to be kept available as a vitally-needed base on the edge of Asia...

Dave Wixon
 
Certainly the popular history here has it that the German battleship, Bismark, was a serious threat that required a dedicated force to take out. However, the North Sea is ringed with major cities, whereas the Pacific is famously empty pace.

I suspect the role of specific ship classes varied in strategic importance according to the corresponding arena. Certainly aircraft carriers would have been far more important in the Pacific than the North Sea!

Absolutely correct! As shown by the fact that the American losses in capital ships, after Pearl, were principally aircraft carriers... Carriers HAD to be paramount in the Pacific, because their planes gave them the reach to cover the vast distances; battleships were only of use when they got within cannon range of a target, which was usually land. (And carriers took the casualties because the Japanese, too, knew that they were the biggest danger, and concentrated on finding and attacking them...).

Dave Wixon
 
Absolutely correct! As shown by the fact that the American losses in capital ships, after Pearl, were principally aircraft carriers...
So first the "fact" that "lots of battleships were sunk" is touted as evidence of their inconsequentiality, and then when I point that the actual number was 0, THAT is claimed to be evidence of the same thing. Y'all are really attached to this idea.

Certainly WW II was "the carrier war" and I've never said otherwise but there is persistent oversimplification and exaggeration in this thread. Certainly carriers were targeted. But also we lost a lot because we HAD a lot. Half a dozen or so at the time of Pearl and we built another 27 during the war. Also we lost a lot because they were the most inherently vulnerable capital ships ever built. Which is why they were never deployed without escorts of conventional ships.

battleships were only of use when they got within cannon range of a target
Absolutely incorrect! Battleships were the most puissant anti-aircraft gun platforms at sea during the Pacific War. Carriers were not only high value targets, they were vulnerable ones, lightly armored and even more lightly armed, they had to be escorted by conventional ships. Recognition of the importance of the escort role is why the USN shifted priority from the production of Montana class BBs to building more of the Iowa class which, although less powerful for shore bombardment than the Montanas would have been, were faster and more suitable for escort duty. Being short of BBs we had to make do with cruisers and even destroyers but there is no realistic question that IN THE 1940s, BBs were the most effective escort vessels in existence. No ship of that era carried as much AA firepower. They were also by far the hardest to sink. Your implication that the US lost no BBs because they weren't attacked simply isn't true. I am in possession of a bit of crumpled up fuselage, a remnant of a Kamikaze that crashed into the Idaho. It did no damage, which is fairly typical of this type of attack. The same kind of attack on a destroyer typically sank it.

Nor was the role in fire support of amphibious landings trivial. People weren't shooting at each other in the middle of the ocean just for the fun of it. In the end, it all comes down to putting boots on the ground ON LAND. Read accounts of the island hopping campaigns from the grunts' POV. Without BBs it would have been a lot harder, a lot slower, and maybe not even possible, given the technology OF THE TIME. With more BBs sooner, it would have gone a lot faster. Manpower was not the limiting factor.

The loss of BBs at Pearl was absolutely NOT strategically trivial. For a whole year the US diverted resources that could have accelerated the building of the Iowa class BBs or carriers into repair of 4 existing BBs. 2 more were total losses. After Pearl we had NO BBs in the Pacific and until the South Dakota class was deployed our total in both oceans was halved.
 

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