Speculating about the next fifty years

[Harpo]

Fifty years ago we had a few satellites such as Telstar, we had new words & concepts such as 'clone' and 'the butterfly effect'.
Telstar is still in orbit, though no longer functional.

I wonder what scientific marvels the world will have fifty years from now, and what things newly discovered/created in 2013 will turn out to be important in the longterm.

I hereby invite you to speculate.

 

[Vertigo]

I think genetics and nano-technology will dominate and probably something that combines the two; bio-tech maybe. If we finally crack nuclear fusion (we'd better!) then that will also be hugely significant.

 

[Gumboot]

I think there will be technological stagnation as I am anticipating the collapse of liberal western civilisation in the next 100 years.

My prediction is that China's increasing demand for resources will draw it into conflict with the west, and that this conflict will undermine western civilisation and end the USA's economic and political dominance. Conflict will result in a sudden explosion of modernisation in China (much as happened to the USA during WW2) which will result in their ascendary as the global super power, and an explosion in their already impressive population. These post-war Chinese "baby boomers" will drive social and technological advancements over their lifetime in the same way that the post WW2 baby boomers of the USA have driven social and technological development over the last 60 years.

 

[BetaWolf]

Volcanic winter or five-meter-high sealevel rise. Flip a coin.

 

[Bick]

I'm with Gumboot:

Collapse of the "West", climate change and subsequent increased levels of war and famine, along with deteriorating educational standards (reliance on the www and "smart"phones to immediately tell us everything we could want to know without ever having to learn anything - the next generation will know even less than the current one, and I despair at the ignorance of the current batch tbh) - all of which means I also think there's going to be a stagnation except in those areas we really don't need it, i.e. smaller faster computers.

I've heard people say, "oh technology will come to the rescue" regards climate change and other problems. But I don't think it will actually. I think the world's going to hell in a handcart.

 

[Ted Cross]

Fifty years ago we had a few satellites such as Telstar, we had new words & concepts such as 'clone' and 'the butterfly effect'.
Telstar is still in orbit, though no longer functional.

I wonder what scientific marvels the world will have fifty years from now, and what things newly discovered/created in 2013 will turn out to be important in the longterm.

I hereby invite you to speculate.

We see the very beginnings of mind/data interfaces these days, and I expect that to be the single biggest explosion of technological change (perhaps along with nanobots) in the near future. That's why my WIP directly relates to this issue.

 

[Ted Cross]

I think there will be technological stagnation as I am anticipating the collapse of liberal western civilisation in the next 100 years.

My prediction is that China's increasing demand for resources will draw it into conflict with the west, and that this conflict will undermine western civilisation and end the USA's economic and political dominance. Conflict will result in a sudden explosion of modernisation in China (much as happened to the USA during WW2) which will result in their ascendary as the global super power, and an explosion in their already impressive population. These post-war Chinese "baby boomers" will drive social and technological advancements over their lifetime in the same way that the post WW2 baby boomers of the USA have driven social and technological development over the last 60 years.

Interesting that you say that, because I call my WIP 'near future' even though it is set in 2138 precisely because I first have civilization collapse later this century and have to begin rebuilding itself.

 

[AMB]

Ted, next to quote is the multi-quote button. Press it for each post you want to quote, then hit the quote button. You should be able to respond to multiple people in one post.

 

[Ted Cross]

Ted, next to quote is the multi-quote button. Press it for each post you want to quote, then hit the quote button. You should be able to respond to multiple people in one post.

Thanks. I haven't come across that option before, and obviously I'm new here!

 

[clovis-man]

These post-war Chinese "baby boomers" will drive social and technological advancements over their lifetime in the same way that the post WW2 baby boomers of the USA have driven social and technological development over the last 60 years.

Oh, I just thought they'd move on to destroying the Earth as we know it without any bothersome messing around with socio-technical factors.

 

[Gramm838]

I think there will be technological stagnation as I am anticipating the collapse of liberal western civilisation in the next 100 years.

My prediction is that China's increasing demand for resources will draw it into conflict with the west, and that this conflict will undermine western civilisation and end the USA's economic and political dominance. Conflict will result in a sudden explosion of modernisation in China (much as happened to the USA during WW2) which will result in their ascendary as the global super power, and an explosion in their already impressive population. These post-war Chinese "baby boomers" will drive social and technological advancements over their lifetime in the same way that the post WW2 baby boomers of the USA have driven social and technological development over the last 60 years.

I would partially agree with this but I'm not sure about the use of the word collapse...and I see religion having a baleful effect on western life.

I suspect that it might take 100 years rather than 50 but I see England at least (assuming the UK breaks up in the coming decades), but maybe France and Spain also as becoming an Islamic states simply through demographics/birthrate and the use of democracy; and increasing Islamic influence in Europe will drive the US further towards fundamental Christianity.

So if that happens I don't see a collapse as such, but a major paradigm shift in world views; and until all religions are ridiculed out of existence, I can't see any way to deal with the coming dark age.

As for China, I think it will implode at some stage but the implosion will suck in a large part of the pacific rim and SE Asia will become more isolated and inward looking.

And as for Russia? Well, your guess is as good as mine...

 

[JoanDrake]

I would partially agree with this but I'm not sure about the use of the word collapse...and I see religion having a baleful effect on western life.

I suspect that it might take 100 years rather than 50 but I see England at least (assuming the UK breaks up in the coming decades), but maybe France and Spain also as becoming an Islamic states simply through demographics/birthrate and the use of democracy; and increasing Islamic influence in Europe will drive the US further towards fundamental Christianity.

So if that happens I don't see a collapse as such, but a major paradigm shift in world views; and until all religions are ridiculed out of existence, I can't see any way to deal with the coming dark age.

As for China, I think it will implode at some stage but the implosion will suck in a large part of the pacific rim and SE Asia will become more isolated and inward looking.

And as for Russia? Well, your guess is as good as mine...

I don't think you'll ever get to the point where all religions will be ridiculed out of existence. Religion, like it or not, serves a primordial need in people and that's not just from the fear of death, since some don't have an afterlife.

Religions can and do change and sometimes religion can have good effects as well. Most sociologists admit that the East Asian Religions, (Taoism, Buddhism, Shinto etc ) have much less of a bent towards authoritarianism than do most others. And all religions nowadays are evolving towards a Taoist model as this is most in keeping with the viewpoint of modern science, which effects us all, religious or not.

I might advise you to read Jared Diamond's Collapse and pay particular attention to the chapter on Tokugawa Japan. They took the most warring nation on Earth and gave it 250 years of peace while staving off foreign conquest the whole time. They did this while accumulating enough wealth to modernize completely in 30 years. Think of what they might have accomplished had they had mechanisms to prevent authoritarianism.

As for the next 50 years remember that progress is not monolithic. I've read somewhere that if aviation had progressed as much as computers in the last 50 years we could all now buy a Boeing 747 for fifty bucks

 

[Gramm838]

I don't think you'll ever get to the point where all religions will be ridiculed out of existence. Religion, like it or not, serves a primordial need in people and that's not just from the fear of death, since some don't have an afterlife.

Religions can and do change and sometimes religion can have good effects as well. Most sociologists admit that the East Asian Religions, (Taoism, Buddhism, Shinto etc ) have much less of a bent towards authoritarianism than do most others. And all religions nowadays are evolving towards a Taoist model as this is most in keeping with the viewpoint of modern science, which effects us all, religious or not.

I might advise you to read Jared Diamond's Collapse and pay particular attention to the chapter on Tokugawa Japan. They took the most warring nation on Earth and gave it 250 years of peace while staving off foreign conquest the whole time. They did this while accumulating enough wealth to modernize completely in 30 years. Think of what they might have accomplished had they had mechanisms to prevent authoritarianism.

As for the next 50 years remember that progress is not monolithic. I've read somewhere that if aviation had progressed as much as computers in the last 50 years we could all now buy a Boeing 747 for fifty bucks

I don't see the point in further discussing religion since there will never be an end to it...as for religion doing good things, name one that isn't something a reasonable, secular person wouldn't do.

As for medieval Japan; without having read the book you're quoting from, I think to call Japan 'the most warring nation on earth' is, I think, stretching a point; yes they had wars against the Mongols and Korea and so on, but a lot of their wars were internecine family feuds in order to control the Shogunate, and Japanese warfare could be quite ritualised as well - not like the wars the European nations got themselves into. European (as we recognise it now) warfare could be traced back almost without stop to the time of the Romans, up until the time of Spanish Armada and the 7 Years War; and the wars fought in Europe in that period were in many ways a total war of a type that the Japanese rarely, if ever, fought.

 

[JoanDrake]

I don't see the point in further discussing religion since there will never be an end to it...as for religion doing good things, name one that isn't something a reasonable, secular person wouldn't do.

As for medieval Japan; without having read the book you're quoting from, I think to call Japan 'the most warring nation on earth' is, I think, stretching a point; yes they had wars against the Mongols and Korea and so on, but a lot of their wars were internecine family feuds in order to control the Shogunate, and Japanese warfare could be quite ritualised as well - not like the wars the European nations got themselves into. European (as we recognise it now) warfare could be traced back almost without stop to the time of the Romans, up until the time of Spanish Armada and the 7 Years War; and the wars fought in Europe in that period were in many ways a total war of a type that the Japanese rarely, if ever, fought.

The internecine family feuds were mainly what I was referring to. The conflicts with the Mongols were centuries before and the war with the Koreans was almost like a break for them. It was probably not the most warring nation on Earth, I guess, but over a century of almost constant conflict seems seem to amply justify its name of Sengoku or the Warring States period.

The wars may have started in a ritualistic way but they became less and less so as time went on and in any case this misses my point. Diamond's chapter is trying to show that collapse may be averted and even used as a starting point for recovery if the society and government are assiduous in their efforts

 

[StormSeeker]

I wish I could post links but I cant just yet. If anyone has the time please visit FutureTimeLine (.net) its an amazing log of what people have predicted we will be able to do in the next centuries, and beyond!

Once I start reading it I read it all day. haha!

 

[RCynic]

I don't know what will happen but I'd love to see some of these things become reality.

Quantum computing and true AI
Zero point energy
Nano and genetic RX for whatever ails us

 

[Toby Frost]

I think any sort of speculation is nigh-on impossible. I've no idea what will happen to China, nobody ever discusses India and Brazil, Russia will continue to grovel before whichever thug beats it the hardest, Europe will presumably remain feeble and reliant on American firepower, the Middle East will, er, probably have a war with someone, quite possibly itself... and goodness knows about Britain.

I can think of four major problems about predicting the future:

1) a very small event could have enormous and unforeseen consequences - and a range of consequences, not just one;

2) it is wrong to simply extrapolate the most dynamic force of the time as being inevitable in its conquest of the world (which is why I'm not writing this from a slave labour camp, in German or Japanese). Three years ago, UKIP was a joke. Now it's a joke that gets column inches, and is pretty much admitted as speaking for a reasonable section of the population. I didn't see that coming.

3) more controversially, a lot of commentators on the intellectual/liberal side of things instinctively consider any culture other than their own to be stronger, more vibrant, dominant, powerful, etc. and are pessimistic to the point of masochism (I'm not aiming this at any earlier posts). This is not to say that there are no dangers to democracy, but that it is wrong to assume that a fight-back is impossible.

4) technology. I can't even guess what will happen there.

Whatever happens, it will be a tough time.

 

[RCynic]

Toby, I agree. I remember seeing one of my very old science fiction book covers showing an astronaut on a space walk. The ship, his suit, etc. were all believable but the thing that got me is he had a slide rule hanging from his utility belt....I guess digital anything that small wasn't imaginable then.

 

[Stephen Palmer]

David Langford and Brian Stableford's The Third Millennium had the Soviet Union hanging on into the 2900's...

You can't predict anything - the best you can do is guess. Who was it who said, all literature about the future is disguised comment about the present? (William Gibson?)

 

[tinkerdan]

Predicting the future of technology and in essence the continued intellectual capacity of man have long been discussed even without the technology we see today. So far the only clear evidence is that man moves forward more often than backward.

So to say we would go backward technologically would have to be supported by something so catastrophic that we have no other record of such an occurrence except maybe that great flood a little while back.

So yes if there is some disaster that wipes out all the adults and leaves only a handful of children to survive as best they can-think lord of the flies-it might take an extended period of time to bring back technology.

Otherwise no matter who is in charge things will go forward-they might slow down and maybe even take a few detours but I can't see backsliding without some major break in the line to cause enough loss of knowledge.

We could stop all space flight right now but I don't think that would cause everyone to abandon the search for knowledge of what is out there. You can try to choke all of technology for some better purpose but if you don't advance your technology while doing that then the people who escape the choke hold will eventually show up on your doorstep to let you know how big a mistake that was.

And yes, of course, go ahead and believe you have choked everyone that counts.