The Winds of Winter publishing date guesses?

[Eversummer]

Really hoping that it will be finished by the end of 2014, but that may be a bit optimistic. Although, he did say that several chapters were moved from Dance to Winds of Winter so hopefully it won't be too long a wait.

I do so agree. Let's just keep our hopes up--winter 2014!

 

[Warren_Paul]

I think George Martin will write TWOW quicker than he did ADWD.

I'm not sure if we even know why ADWD took so long to write, maybe because of helping get the TV show started, or maybe personal life got in the way. I think with the success of Game of Thrones, he will have to write faster. I'm thinking no more than 3 years tops.

 

[Ursa major]

I'm hoping ADWD took so long because GRRM had to make some key decisions about how the story would get from AFfC to the end of the series. By the end of AFfC, he'd sent, or was preparing to send, various envoys from Westeros to Dany. One has not been heard of since, one has perished, one's almost there, one's at the city, but never got to meet Dany face to face. To make these missions failed ones (failed insofar that only one envoy has met Dany, and he didn't survive) required hard choices, because each had within it the possibility of making the following books take a different path.

But now GRRM has made his choices, he can concentrate on populating his chosen path to completion with interesting people, scenes, places and intrigues, without worrying about all those other possible paths.


Having said that.... Sometimes when you're in plenty of time for an appointment, you take things a little easier, perhaps a little too easy, so you end up later than if you'd been a little late in the first place. GRRM may feel the same: the big problems are behind him. He may relax. So let's hope that the pressure of Game of Thrones racing towards the unwritten novels provides sufficient urgency to GRRM's writing.


So here's to 2015. *fingers crossed*

 

[Coragem]

I'd just add "be careful what you wish for".

I've said above, I emphatically DON'T believe that GRRM is indisciplined. However, as I read ADWD I was struck repeatedly with a sense that the man is a perfectionist -- either that or the pressure of maintaining the series' standard (writing the next Lord of the Rings) is making him obsessive about quality.

The writing in ADWD is absolutely mind-blowing. When it comes to the sheer details he gets into every scene no other writer can touch him.

So, I say we should be careful what we wish for because he needs time to produce another two works of genius. If he rushed those two books it'd be such a sad waste, all for the sake of shaving a year or two from the publishing date. On the other hand, if he pulls off two more masterpieces ASOIAF will be a monument to great fantasy for the next 100yrs or more.

Coragem.

 

[3EyedCrowsEye]

jokingly, I'd say 2027 but seeing as how the popularity of the series has drastically risen over the last couple of years, I would think that GRRM is a little pressured to put it out quicker than usual and maybe will come out in 2014/15. I think the last 2 might not take as long because he set up pretty much everything and everyone in the last 4 books and ADWD was the book that threw the bowling ball at the pins and the last 2 are when it finally hits and strikes out (in a good way)

I suspect there will be a lot of fan favorites brutally killed by The Others. But I'm sure it will end with Belwas sitting on a new, better, bigger (obviously) Golden Throne that Makes him the King of Westeros, everywhere across the sea, and beyond.

 

[Tywin]

I suspect there will be a lot of fan favorites brutally killed by The Others. But I'm sure it will end with Belwas sitting on a new, better, bigger (obviously) Golden Throne that Makes him the King of Westeros, everywhere across the sea, and beyond.

Brilliant!

 

[garion77]

I can guarantee that It will be out before HBO get to TWOW series. I can promise you that...

I am fine with him taking his time since he managed to get us the series on HBO. I am looking forward to April for the next season. The first season was excellent.

People who claim not to like fantasy novels are addicted to the HBO series. People who swore they don't like childish crap like that... Now they are at work talking about it every day...

I love it...

 

[Ursa major]

And the season 1 DVD will be out on the 7th of March.

 

[Fantom]

I think this will put a certain amount of pressure on him to move things along. If we were to assume that the TV show continues to the end, and that there are only two more books in the series, the air dates for the TV shows would go like this:

Clash of Kings: April 2012
Storm of Swords 1: 2013 (I think they've more or less confirmed Storm of Swords will run over 2 seasons)
Storm of Swords 2: 2014
Feast/Dance 1: 2015 (I've combined Feast for Crows & Dance with Dragons since much of the timelines are concurrent)
Feast/Dance 2: 2016
Winds of Winter: 2017
Final book (Dream of Spring?): 2018

So, if GRRM doesn't want the TV show to get ahead of the books, he has to produce two books before the spring of 2018 (assuming each of the final two books gets one TV season). How do we rate his chances on this? (No, don't answer!)

Of course, this is really all just for fun and speculation because there are no guarantees that they will continue to make the show or how much they will combine books (hell, Feast & Dance could be condensed into one season!)

I'm not going to knock GRRM for taking whatever length of time he needs to write his books, but to be honest, I think I would be a little disappointed if I had to find out the end from a TV show, rather than reading it in the book.

While I fully agree with everything you stated, I want to suggest something worth thinking about when applying the dates for ideal publication.

So, if GRRM doesn't want the TV show to get ahead of the books, he has to produce Winds of Winter by 2015 and the final book by 2016.

This time frame allows for digesting the actual plot correctly, scripting and producing the series for television (which usually is underway shortly after the previous series premieres.) which doesn't leave a whole lot of time for lollygagging by Mr. Martin.

Id hope to see Winds by winter - 2013 (but 2014 is more realistic)
And the final installment by winter 2015 (however 2016-17 might be more realistic due to his ridiculous perfectionist trait.....not to mention he stands a reasonable chance of dying anytime, starting right about now.)

 

[J.Hollick]

Originally Posted by Mesanna
I think this will put a certain amount of pressure on him to move things along. If we were to assume that the TV show continues to the end

I think the tv show will definitely put pressure on GRRM to publish the next couple books but at the same time he is one of the writers on the show, or at least he was in the first season and I'm pretty sure the second, and that itself is very time consuming. The positive side to that is that he knows what can be cut and what has to stay in order for everything to work out in the end.

 

[Lady of Winterfell]

I think George only writes one episode per season? Someone can correct me if I'm wrong.

I want the next book as soon as possible, and the series to be finished the same way, just like everyone else. However, if George doesn't write well under pressure, then I would rather he take his time. I really hope the show doesn't rush him to finish it and in turn ruin the quality of writing we have come to expect.

 

[The Imp]

I think the tv show will definitely put pressure on GRRM to publish the next couple books but at the same time he is one of the writers on the show, or at least he was in the first season and I'm pretty sure the second, and that itself is very time consuming. The positive side to that is that he knows what can be cut and what has to stay in order for everything to work out in the end.

GRRM writes one episode per seasn. he did "Baelor" in the first season, and "Blackwater" in the second. He will be doing one episode in the third season, unless his contract has been changed.

Welcome to the forum btw

 

[Eversummer]

Indeed that's true J.Hollick. Last time I heard (from Wert) there's this World of Ice and Fire pending publication, last 2 books of the series, other spin-offs, football on the side and what-not. But I am really hoping he would not prolong the agony of thousand thousand others.

Btw, welcome to the chrons!

 

[Reivax26]

My only hope is that he actually finishes the series and that it doesn't end up having to be finished by someone else. He has stated in the past that he absolutely does not want anyone other than him to finish it, but the more time he wastes the more I worry that it might happen.

If I had to guess...I would say spring or summer 2014.

 

[The Imp]

My only hope is that he actually finishes the series and that it doesn't end up having to be finished by someone else. He has stated in the past that he absolutely does not want anyone other than him to finish it, but the more time he wastes the more I worry that it might happen.

If I had to guess...I would say spring or summer 2014.

GRRM's process is clearly one which requires him to work on whatever his main project is at the time "sporadically". I'd rather see him follow his own path and put out something that is great rather than crank out something that is mediocre. He appears to need to jump from project to project and take breaks, usually by travelling. I know many artists, writers, theater people etc. What matters most when looking at their work is the product, not the process.

I am reminded of what happened with Stephen King and The Dark Tower series, one which was published in this time frame- 1982, 1987, 1991, 1997, 2003, 2004, 2004. I think that 99.88888% of the fans of this series wish that he had spent more time on the last book. I'll leave it at that and say that's close enough for government work.

If aSoIaF never gets finished so be it. Speaking obviously just for myself, i'd rather have what IS published be consistent with the rest of the series than have something that was rushed out and leaves me feeling cheated or unsatisfied.

 

[Lady of Winterfell]

GRRM's process is clearly one which requires him to work on whatever his main project is at the time "sporadically". I'd rather see him follow his own path and put out something that is great rather than crank out something that is mediocre. He appears to need to jump from project to project and take breaks, usually by travelling. I know many artists, writers, theater people etc. What matters most when looking at their work is the product, not the process.

Speaking obviously just for myself, i'd rather have what IS published be consistent with the rest of the series than have something that was rushed out and leaves me feeling cheated or unsatisfied.

I completely agree Imp. I'd rather he take his time so we get a quality product. If GRRM needs to take breaks to work on other projects, so be it. It has gotten us some great books so far.

If it ain't broke, don't fix it.

 

[Boaz]

Speaking obviously just for myself, i'd rather have what IS published be consistent with the rest of the series than have something that was rushed out and leaves me feeling cheated or unsatisfied.

You speak for me too.

 

[Reivax26]

My point is that if he didn't spend so much time at the conventions and all that stuff then maybe he could actually get some work done. I am all for taking breaks while writing, everyone needs to clear their head from time to time.

The problem is when you take months at a time off because you are going to every convention under the sun.

Imp, I agree with you wholeheartedly about the Dark Tower situation with Stephen King. If he hadn't got hurt after being hit by that van, he might not have ever actually sat down and finished the Tower series. I also agree that he should have taken more time with the last one. He was just afraid that his series would never get finished.

The problem is that GRRM isn't the least bit worried about it getting finished and doesn't really seem interested in finishing it anytime soon.

 

[juleska]

The problem is that GRRM isn't the least bit worried about it getting finished and doesn't really seem interested in finishing it anytime soon.

In the interest of fairness, that's an assumption on your part, and a rather broad one at that. Perhaps he doesn't write as fast as you would like, but that can hardly be assumed to mean that he "isnt' the least bit worried about it getting finished" nor that he "doesn't really seem interested in finishing it anytime soon." I am a writer myself, nowhere near the caliber of GRRM or any other published author. I hardly have the mental energy to sustain my blog, and frequently neglect the short stories I write in conjunction with my best friend. While I am nowhere near his level, I can appreciate the artistic burden.

 

[J.Hollick]

Thanks for all the welcomes,

@The Imp, I agree. I'd rather he take his time and continue to pump out masterpieces than publish something because of time constraints.

(on a side note: does anyone have a problem with loading the bottom portion of the forum? The last post is always cut in half for me no matter which page I'm on.)