The Winds of Winter publishing date guesses?

Werthead said:
This will never happen. The TV show will overtake him and, if necessary, show the ending on screen years before he reaches it in the books. There have been meetings between the producers and GRRM and outlines and things handed over to facilitate this if it proves necessary (and right now it's looking very, very likely).
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I'm glad that the TV show will show the ending of the series. That's good news. I still seriously doubt we'll ever see the next book (or books...) in the series.

But if we do see The Winds of Winter then it will be on December 6th, 2016. That's my guess!
 
Personally, I'm of the opinion that if the ending is shown by the TV series it will be nothing but a complete disaster and utterly ruin the enjoyment I'd have taken from reading the books. The excitement you feel when you can't wait to turn the next page to see what happens would just be gone. It would make reading the books pointless.
I hope George is writing faster than he's ever done and surprises us all with a 2014 release!
 
I reckon it will be at least 3-4 years before they get to book 5 and that depends if the show isnt cancelled because of the drop in quality of book 4
 
please be wrong! i really really want to see a 2014 release.

Also, as much as I love the show, I would rather see it get cancelled than see it outpace the books. I know that if they do show the ending on TV before the books are complete, then I will be too curious and impatient and will watch the show, which will make the books less enjoyable when they finally come out.
 
GRRM's publishers are now on record as saying that the novel will 100% not be published in 2014. 2015 is still 'possible', apparently.

Season 4 of GoT, the one starting in two months, will be adapting parts of Books 4 and 5. Most of the rest of follow in Season 5. They'll probably reach Book 6 material before the end of Season 5, which will air next year. They will not, under any circumstances, be taking years to reach material from The Winds of Winter. Season 6 will likely be the one that adapts the bulk of TWoW to the screen, regardless of if it is finished or out yet.
 
Werthead said:
GRRM's publishers are now on record as saying that the novel will 100% not be published in 2014. 2015 is still 'possible', apparently.

Season 4 of GoT, the one starting in two months, will be adapting parts of Books 4 and 5. Most of the rest of follow in Season 5. They'll probably reach Book 6 material before the end of Season 5, which will air next year. They will not, under any circumstances, be taking years to reach material from The Winds of Winter. Season 6 will likely be the one that adapts the bulk of TWoW to the screen, regardless of if it is finished or out yet.
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Correct me if I'm wrong, but Season 4 is adapting second part of Book 3. At most, a few chapters of the fourth though I doubt it. Which botches up your estimation of TV Show catching up that fast. If TWoW is to be out in 2015, then the TV Show will at most adapt a part of Book 4 and some of Book 5, depending on whether they follow the geographical division of Martin's or if they will simply merge the two books and do it chronologically in universe time which seems more likely. Books 4 and 5 won't be covered in one season. 2-3 at the very, and I do mean at the very, least. There is a lot to cover there.
 
Each one of the existing seasons does not confine itself to a single book; there's no reason why season four should be any different.

And in any case, even the books tend to overlap each other in terms of time (not counting flashbacks). And speaking of which... Theon's unfortunate time shown in season three is mostly to be found in book five, A Dance with Dragons.
 
Ursa major said:
Each one of the existing seasons does not confine itself to a single book; there's no reason why season four should be any different.

And in any case, even the books tend to overlap each other in terms of time (not counting flashbacks). And speaking of which... Theon's unfortunate time shown in season three is mostly to be found in book five, A Dance with Dragons.
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But the most important events around which it centres are around the Purple Wedding and the subsequent events of Tyrion's trial and the siege of the Wall and Slaver's Bay. The series takes liberties, but you can always see what it mostly adapts as some of the storylines in the books are stretched throughout all books. They can't bend them and overlap those. Plus, new storylines are about to be introduced.
 
But none of that means they won't take quite a lot of material from AFfC and ADwD. After all, they have ten episodes to fill, and it's up to them how they do that. Clearly they felt that two seasons is too long for ASoS (hence the number of Theon scenes). And why wouldn't they? While ASoS exists as two paperbacks, it isn't twice as long as AGoT, let alone ACoK; it doesn't contain twice as much material as either of those books.
 
But AFFC and ADWD contain a lot that needs to be covered. They might have taken some things from those two books to fill in some other timelines and run them at the same time, but they can't shorten the storylines that happen through out all books and/or shorten them. Plus, characters are now even more dispersed and new ones are being introduced. I don't think they can cover all that in less than 3 seasons which gives Martin enough time for sixth book. As for the seventh, IDK yet. Depends on how the sixth one is played out. Plus, the show takes enough liberties with the original storylines, expanding them. I just don't think there is a reason to worry about TWOW. About A Dream of Spring, maybe, but not about TWOW.
 
I'm guessing you have not been following the filming of the series?

Multiple characters from AFFC and ADWD have been cast and will debut in Season 4, including:

Tycho Nestoris, the man from the Iron Bank who works with Stannis.
The ironborn commander of the Moat Cailin garrison.
Hizdahr, the Meereenese noble Dany marries in ADWD.
Bloodraven/the Three-Eyed Crow.
The Vale lords who besiege the Eyrie in AFFC.

The trailer and early promotional shots also shows several of these elements:

The Iron Bank HQ in Braavos.
Bran communing with a tree to see through the eyes of all of them.
Theon riding into a marsh to negotiate the surrender of Moat Cailin.
Daenerys being presented with the charred bones of the child from the start of ADWD.
Brienne and Podrick riding into the Riverlands to find Sansa.

Season 3 covered about 70% of ASoS: it's really only the stuff on the Wall and in King's Landing from that book that remain to be rounded off. That's a fair bit of material, but not a full season's worth. Bran has completed all of his ASoS material and either must go into filler or into his ADWD storyline, and the casting and trailer suggest the latter is happening.

In addition, the producers have confirmed that there will be 8 seasons maximum. There will not be 9 or 10 or more. Using 3 seasons for AFFC/ADWD (5, 6, 7) gives them just 10 episodes to round off the series and adapt all of TWoW and ADoS. That is clearly impossible.

The adaptation of AFFC/ADWD will start in Season 4, the bulk of them will follow in Season 5 and it's possible some elements may linger into early Season 6. But it is impossible for them to go any further without taking time away from the last two books and risking badly rushing the ending.
 
The introduction of characters from books aFfC and aDwD this early isn't too worrying to me because it is always possible that they want to introduce these characters to draw out their story line. and really, having some events from the beginning of Feast and Dance show up at the end of season 4 isn't that surprising. It seems like a big jump to go from book 3 to book 5, but because of the split of Feast and Dance, the timeline isn't really being messed with. Moving Theon's torture up to season 3 made sense because, timing wise, that was when he was being tortured. In the books, we don't see the beginning of Theon's torture. We are left to assume he is dead for a whole book, then he shows up as reek some time later, so for continuity's sake, and to keep the actor around, it makes sense to show those parts in the show.
So a few eaerly character introduction's don't worry me.

What DOES worry me, is that they have said the show will only be 8 seasons. 8 season's for 7(?) MASSIVE books is cutting it really close and we will definately have the show outrun the books. Let's just hope they are a bit flexible on that number.

I will reiterate, that i would rather see the show cancelled than have it pass the books.
 
Arstan, one of my shows, LOST, ended up meandering and just trying to just get by on nothing during the writer's strike about eight years ago or so. I hope HBO does not just fill the air with fluff waiting for GRRM.

Wert, as usual, you have my gratitude for sharing.
 
The TV producers have outlines and notes from GRRM about what is due to happen in the last two books. They visited GRRM again in Santa Fe last year to go over that material in more detai. They will also get early drafts of completed material for TWoW.

If the TV show overtakes, we will still get George's ending and GRRM will continue writing one script per season (possibly more when they get to the end?). The books will still be different, as the books have a much larger number of characters, subplots and mysteries to be resolved. But the core storylines will probably end the same way.
 
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