The Winds of Winter publishing date guesses?

The Imp

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Thanks for all the welcomes,

@The Imp, I agree. I'd rather he take his time and continue to pump out masterpieces than publish something because of time constraints.

(on a side note: does anyone have a problem with loading the bottom portion of the forum? The last post is always cut in half for me no matter which page I'm on.)
hmmm, have you tried a different browser, just as an experiment? I'm embarrassed to even say the name of the dinosaur that I'm using (for esthetic/functional reasons), and i never have an issue, nor do i when using Chrome.
 

Nerds_feather

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In the interest of fairness, that's an assumption on your part, and a rather broad one at that. Perhaps he doesn't write as fast as you would like, but that can hardly be assumed to mean that he "isnt' the least bit worried about it getting finished" nor that he "doesn't really seem interested in finishing it anytime soon." I am a writer myself, nowhere near the caliber of GRRM or any other published author. I hardly have the mental energy to sustain my blog, and frequently neglect the short stories I write in conjunction with my best friend. While I am nowhere near his level, I can appreciate the artistic burden.
I think he just didn't know how to get from Storm of Swords to Winds of Winter.

To me at least, all the problems inherent to Feast for Crows/Dance with Dragons feel like they stem from the meta-problem of a writer trying to work things out for himself.
 

Werthead

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Someday I need to have a good rant against readers who demand certain publishing dates from authors. Recently Alastair Reynolds has been badly slated for agreeing a book a year deal, with people on the internet claiming he is sacrificing quality for a lucrative deal.
I've never seen anyone criticse Reynolds for the deal. Reynolds was writing roughly a novel a year before the deal, so the new deal doesn't really change anything.

Then, it was four years for AFFC. Then, it was almost 7 bloody years for ADWD.
5 years and 2 months for AFFC and then 5 years and 8 months for ADWD. Not even 6 and certainly not 7.

GRRM took the better part of 7 years to write one book of 1100 pages or so. That works out to about 157 pages a year. Hardly a blistering pace, and most of the book was written in late 2009, 2010, and early 2011, according to his blog posts. I know he had to start over in 2005/6, but I finished reading AFFC in 2004. I got ADWD on June 12, 2012. I am content with the results of the wait, however, but it took longer than it should have.
This is somewhat inaccurate. In the 2009-11 period, GRRM was reporting his completed page counts as he finished off the final version of each chapter, but that was only 'finished' material. In some cases those were chapters he'd been writing and revising for years without ever counting as 'finished'. He was still writing ADWD full-tilt in 2005-09 as well, but he was not having much luck finalising material.

Also, GRRM is a noted perfectionist who writes and re-writes material, junks stuff (in one case during the writing of AFFC, more than 200 pages' worth of material was completely thrown out) and starts again if he does not feel it is working. To get the 1,530 manuscript pages that make up ADWD, GRRM actually wrote a lot more than that (I've seen estimates ranging from twice to almost three times that actual page count).

GRRM's writing methodology - partially a result of his refusal to use outlines - may be inefficient, but it's also hardly the result of a lack of writing discipline.

I think the tv show will definitely put pressure on GRRM to publish the next couple books but at the same time he is one of the writers on the show, or at least he was in the first season and I'm pretty sure the second, and that itself is very time consuming. The positive side to that is that he knows what can be cut and what has to stay in order for everything to work out in the end.
GRRM writes one script per season, which takes about 1 week per script. He also helps out a bit with the casting, which takes another couple of weeks per year. Overall, GRRM's time contribution to the TV show is fairly limited.

GRRM writes one episode per seasn. he did "Baelor" in the first season, and "Blackwater" in the second. He will be doing one episode in the third season, unless his contract has been changed.
Yes, he's written the seventh episode of Season 3, with the title "Chains".

The problem is when you take months at a time off because you are going to every convention under the sun.
There is very much a perception problem here. GRRM gets invited to several hundred conventions/appearances worldwide per year. This year he's actually appearing at a grand total of seven. Not a vast amount.

The problem is that GRRM isn't the least bit worried about it getting finished and doesn't really seem interested in finishing it anytime soon.
This is very definitely not true. GRRM is extremely keen to get ASoIaF finished, as he has a very long list of additional novels and short stories he wants to write once it's done. The problem, as I mentioned earlier, is that GRRM doesn't want to change his writing methodology. If he wrote on a modern word processor rather than a 30-year-old DOS thing, he'd probably save a lot of time. If he outlined, he'd save a lot of time. But he doesn't work that way and sees no reason to change (as it's served him quite well so far!).
 

Pedro Del Mar

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Late 2015 or 2016 look to be favourite right now.

We know George has let us have sight of 2 chapters on his website, we also know he's read out excerpts from 2 others at his appearances. So I guess that's four chapters completed by the least. Anyone know of any more?
 

Werthead

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The chapters we've heard about are:

Aeron Greyjoy: 1 chapter
Cersei Lannister: 2 chapters
Sansa Stark: 1 chapter
Arya Stark: 1 chapter
Arianne Martell: 2 chapters
Theon Greyjoy: 1 chapter
Barristan Semly: 2 chapters
Victarion Greyjoy: 1 chapter
Tyrion Lannister: 1 chapter
 

Boaz

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That is an interesting list. None of these POVs are surprises... well, mayhaps Arianne getting back into the story. The two hugely obvious missing POVs are Jon and Jaime... and by extension Brienne and Melisandre. The inclusion of two BFS chapters tells me it will be a while before Dany gets back to Mereen... will she recruit more Dothraki? Is this her goint east to go west? Also, it'd be nice to see Davos (Rickon's story), Areo (why Gerold Dayne, aka Darstar, tried to kill Myrcella), Connington (Aegon's invasion), Asha (mayhaps she's just redundant now that she's back with Theon), and Sam (what is happening with the Faceless Man, the Maesters and the Sphinx). And I know I'm probably missing one or two... well, mayhaps just Eddard and Quentyn.

I won't love it, but we'll get a taste of Bran too.
 

DarkTrin

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It took me three months after having watched season 1, to have read everything, maybe even less. To then get to this point, and go, well, that was just an awesome idea reading those books so damn fast. I'm in no rush, I would rather the show just got cancelled. The books are just so much better.
 

Boaz

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The books are just so much better.
DarkTrin, Welcome to the Chrons! The books are so much better! Please poke around the forum and post in new threads and old threads... I love to read the observations of new readers before they get too familiar with the theories, both rational and crackpot. And I say that knowing full well that I'm currently in the process of shooting down Ollie's theory of Rhaegar.
 

juleska

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The two hugely obvious missing POVs are Jon and Jaime... and by extension Brienne and Melisandre.
AGOT had 72 Chapters and a Prologue
ACOK had 69 Chapters and a Prologue
ASOS had 80 Chapters, a Prologue and an Epilogue
AFFC had 46 Chapters and a Prologue
ADWD had 71 Chapters, a Prologue and an Epilogue

What we have listed above comprises of 12 chapters, so if we assume TWOW is on par with the length of ADWD, only 17% of the chapters are accounted for. Still PLENTY of room for those other POVs to show up. :) Though I doubt very much that GRRM would let us know the fate of either Jon or Jaime by revealing a POV before that volume is published. The man, and I mean this in the nicest way possible, with the highest respect a fan can extend to an artist, is a sadist. ;)

The inclusion of two BFS chapters tells me it will be a while before Dany gets back to Mereen... will she recruit more Dothraki? Is this her goint east to go west?
Well if you consider the Dany chapter at the end of ADWD seems to cover the period of a few weeks at most, while she's been gone for considerably longer than that from BFS' chapters...his chapters may represent the rest of her passage of time before she turns up. I'd like to think she'll turn up as they start attacking Mereen, and roast a few Yunkai on the forward thrust....but I have a feeling that battle is going to last some time, and she will turn up when it seems all hope for Mereen is lost. Hopefully she gets there while BFS is still alive, so he can see that he was right to keep faith. I want BFS to see her back to Westeros, to complete the mission he set forth when he left KL and Joffrey's service. But I don't know if he can.

Also, it'd be nice to see Davos (Rickon's story), Areo (why Gerold Dayne, aka Darstar, tried to kill Myrcella), Connington (Aegon's invasion), Asha (mayhaps she's just redundant now that she's back with Theon), and Sam (what is happening with the Faceless Man, the Maesters and the Sphinx).
Yes, yes, yes and yes.

And I know I'm probably missing one or two... well, mayhaps just Eddard and Quentyn.
Oh....you. :p

I won't love it, but we'll get a taste of Bran too.
Bran is about the only one we have access to who can give us a lot of exposition that we're missing. I think he will be critical in the coming battle of Winter. I wonder if TWOW will bring us the day that Jojen dies.
 

ArstenWhitebeard

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I am going to say early 2016 as my prediction. Even if he finnishes it earlier I think it would make sense for him to have the book come out around about the same time as the show's season premier so they can piggy-back each others success.
 

tangaloomababe

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TOMORROW !!!!, Ok wishful thinking there. I think now that George is spending even more time away from the book and assisting with the tv series it could be awhile but I am sure I read somewhere that he is not planning on TV catching up with him, given this will take a few years yet, probably sometime in 2014 and what better Christmas present could you get than "The Winds of Winter"
 

Rolynd

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I think we have to reconcile ourselves to the series overtaking the books. They are releasing a season a year so even if we say FFC and DWD is two seasons that only gives us until 2016. I imagine he'll have WoW out by then but it'll be the last book where the clash will come. No way the tv execs will agree to put the show on a hiatus while the last book is awaited.

Unless he pulls something out the bag and is working on both con-current so he can release them within a couple of years of each other.
 

Lady of Winterfell

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I can't remember where I saw it now, but David and Dan have said that they won't put the TV show on hiatus, even if the books aren't finished. If that is the case, and the last book hasn't come out yet when the final season airs, I won't be watching it. I want to experience the end of this series in book form.
 

tangaloomababe

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I am not sure what I would do if the series catches up with the books, I would want to watch but I would also want to finish the series and the. ending could be different, most likely would be. Given that this third book is meant to be broken up into two seasons the we have at least three more seasons after this one and I am guessing they will make books four and five into three seasons rather than just two. That would given George another five years up his sleeve to get out book six and seven.

If he has six out in the next two years, then they still have to do that into a book which might also get broken into two seasons, so I think the is still plenty of time there to get the last book out.


Wishful thinking.
 

biodroid

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juleska - yes it is as far as the reporting on the shobiz sites go. That's why season 4 was greenlit so quickly after season 3s release
 
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