WHAT IF... Eddard Stark's campaign (crusade) against King-Beyond-The-Wall

[Raul]

This thread is meant for those who are interested about history and strategy.
We all remember from the beginning of AGOT, that just before King Robert's visit to the Winterfell, Ned Stark told to his wife, that he is planning to gather his vassals and finish Mance Rayder for once and for all. The Fate or G.R.R.Martin never gave him that chance. But what if... he had a chance to lead a campaign against wildlings, how would have it ended?
Like a crusaders in "The Horns of Hattin"? Like a Varus's legions in Teutoburg Forest? (King Robert crying:" Ned, give me back my Legions!")Like English in Isandhlwana? Or Like a Custer?
OBJECTIVES
The only way for Ned Stark to claim his mission victorious, should be: 1. Get into some major battle with wildlings and crush them 2. Bring back Mance Rayder's head. He didn't want those wild lands beyond the Wall to conquer and he couldn't destroy wildling capital, because, they didn't have any.
Did Mance Rayder know that? I think he did. He was smart enough for this. So his objectives should be same as King Bruce's and Owen Glendower's: 1.avoid any major battle, use guerilla warfare, cut of enemy supply lines, hunt down small groups of northmen and loot their equipment. 2. Keep his head on his shoulders.
STRENGTH
Robb Stark rode south with host of 18 000 men. I think that Ned could have gathered almost same strength, maybe a few thousand more including of course Night Watch. But it doesn't matter. We know that it would be more than enough to destroy wildlings in an open battle (Mance Rayder vs. Stannis). They were well equipped, disciplined (compared to wildlings), and well motivated, specially those who suffered mostly by wildlings raids -Umbers, northern clansmen, Karstarks, Flints, etc.I believe that he even would taken his sons Robb and Jon Snow with him as squires but for some reason I don't believe there were be many crannogmans in his army, maybe few volunteers and adventurers like Jojen and Meera. They would be perfect for scouting missions.
From aSoS we know that wildling strength was something about 40000 including women and children and aged people. Poor weapons and armor, complete lack of discipline, although Mance tried to teach them (using triple spearman line and horsemen wedge formation, but unsuccessfully in battle against Stannis), but also they are fighting on their home ground, are highly spirited for a chance to fight against their ancient enemies - "crows" and "kneelers" and are very professional partisans.
STRATEGY. It was very difficult to me to guess what kind of strategy Ned Stark should use against wildlings? Dividing his host into two or three parts and sending them through Shadow Tower, Castle Black and Eastwatch? Or keeping his host compact? I can't figure it out. Dividing his troops would be more dangerous but that could be a chance to lure wildlings into some major battle. About Mance Rayder? It is much simpler. There is no need for history or strategy books, only a bit of common sense, to understand what he must do: avoid any major battle,retreat or falling back to north, keep his troops mobile, night attacks to keep enemy morale low and attack enemy supply lines if they are stretching too long.
X-FACTOR - The Others.
Should meeting with the Others influence the fate of one or other side? Mance Rayder's troops were aware of the Others and they were afraid of them. The northmen didn't know anything about the Others yet. There is two possibilities 1. the Others were not strong enough this time to show himself and attack openly , from aGoT we know that they prefered to attack small groups of wildlings and black brothers so they would keep distance this moment. 2. The Others will see two fighting armies as a perfect chance to raise their own wight army. I chose that first possibility will be more realistic.
RECONNAISANCE
I believe that in this, Mance Rayder's has much better cards in his hands. Ned Stark can use his crannogmen (if they are in his army) and black rangers (specially his brother), but thats all. In fact he know very few everything behind the Wall.Of course let's not forget Craster. He might give some valuable clues, traitor as he was. Mance Rayder in the other hand, seemed to be well informed with everything from south the Wall. I believe that from the moment Eddard Stark would start gathering his troops, Manc Rayder would be aware every move he is making.
Mance Rayder had wargs (Varamyr Skinchanger), who can take a shape of an eagle (from aSoS, when Jon was defending Wall). Eagle makes a perfect scout plane, like U-2 or something.
DECISION
Those battles I mentioned before - there were two important components, why one side lose the battle 1. Lost side didn't know nothing about hostile terrain 2. Lost side Leaders deeply underestimated their enemy.
I believe that Ned Stark was wise and careful leader enough to bring his troops back alive. Bloodied and exhausted of course, but not destroyed. But I repeat that again: to Mance Rayder is much more easier to not fight with Stark, than to Stark win the fight with Mance.
Eddard Stark would have ride back home to Winterfell where he could met his darling wife,loving children with their wolf pups... and his old dear friend King Robert who came to visit him with his royal family, and bring Ned to south to meet his fate.
"The most destructive and dangerous of all the dreams mankind ever had, is the dream of short decisive war." I don't know who said that, but he said that well.

 

[Koopa]

The outcome seems very clear to me, the wildlings get annihilated.
Their traditional places are wellknown, and they have not that much place to hide, since the others are moving up. they'd be crushed in between the two

 

[Aegon the Unworthy]

All your suppositions are fine, except Ned would not have gone to war alone. With the Nights Watch acting as outriders and advice coming from Benjen, Half-Hand and the Old Bear we would not have seen a replay of the Fist. Ned had enough men to bloody the wildlings column as it snaked out of the deep mountains without resorting to holding the Fist.

With that in mind I would have to assume theres no way for the Others to significantly surround them so a fighting withdrawl in the face of a supernatural force would seem appropriate.

So I would think there would be a brief, bloody engagement with Mances vanguard in which those stalwarts pull back into the one pass they came out of, then the Others strike in the night as Neds men pull back in confusion.

So the Others trap the wildlings while Ned receives counsel at the Wall. Robert sends a small host north...maybe even comes himself out of loyalty to Ned. Robert at first doesnt believe Ned but the first time bodies rise up he commands more men to come north and then does something stupid that gets his host killed and probably Ned as well. Cersei claims the throne in Joffs name, the Starks never rebel, Westeros stays at peace until years later Cersei does something exceedingly stupid....the Others are held at the Wall because the remnants of the North and the Nights Watch maintain their vigil.

 

[Boaz]

What if...? That's a great post, Raul. I'd never thought about that.

One disagreement, I'd have put the Wildlings fighting force at about 40,000. Their entire host with children, elderly, and others unable to fight probably put their numbers over 100,000. But maybe that's more my imagination than actual ASOIAF fact.

And actually one more disagreement, I don't know that Eddard would have summoned the huge host that Robb did. I think he might have gathered around 10,000 men at most and set off for the Wall.

I do agree that the communication and trade between across the Wall would have allowed Mance months to prepare. It seems to me that the Old Bear basically went north within a week of making his decision... time to get going before Mance was aware... plus the Wildlings near the Wall had all pulled back around the time Jeor advanced.

Mance would have wanted to avoid a major battle, but his troops would have wanted to fight. It appears in Plutarch's histories that Spartacus may have suffered from the same issues with the Germans (and mayhaps Gauls) in his army. Mance's fabian tactics might have worked, but with winter coming on, the presence of wights, and his inability to adequately protect his women and children I think ultimately Mance would have had been forced to engage Eddard.

The outcome of a pitched battle between 40,000 tribesmen guided by their "King" and 10,000 iron clad fighters led by the very experienced Lord Stark is anyone's guess. Would Qhorin have led the Karstarks in a surprise flank attack or would Harma Dogshead have led her troops in a surprise attack on Eddard's camp? If Robb or Jon had been caught or killed, how would Eddard have reacted? What if Mance was able to keep his mammoths and giants a secret until the dawn of battle? And the very existence of wights and the Others throws the entire outcome into complete confusion.

I don't know the outcome, but my guess is that, barring an attack of wights and Others upon the northmen, Eddard mounts Mance's head upon the Wall.

 

[Culhwch]

An interesting discussion indeed. I wonder if the threat of the Others became apparent while the battle between the Northmen and the Wildlings was still raging, whether Ned and Mance would have allied themselves against the threat? I have a feeling that two such cool heads would have made common cause against a threat to both of their people. Would Ned make a gift of the Gift as Stannis has done? Hard to say - I think Ned, as Lord of the North, has more attachment to that land than Stannis ever did.

It's interesting - if Ned hadn't gone south, I wonder if Robert would have survived as long as he did. Certainly, it was Ned's involvement in the aftermath of Robert's death that caused the war - though I imagine Stannis was ready to rebel at some point. Would Stannis have sailed to the Wall to make an ally of Robert's old friend? Help defeat the Others, see out the Winter, and then march on King's Landing to retake the Throne. But meanwhile Dany is rising in the East. Does Ned forsake his dear friend's brother to support the daughter of the man who murdered his father and brother and, for all intents and purposes, the rightful heir to the throne? Or do we see a situation where Stannis and Ned march on King's Landing from the north, while Dany and Dorne march from the south? And of course, let's not forget the Ironborn, who will probably have declared independance and raided the North while Ned's been beyond the Wall...

It would certainly be a different series, but one just as interesting, I imagine.

 

[Aegon the Unworthy]

I had imagined that Ned would arrive to engage the wildlings at about the same time Mormont did the same at the Fist of the First Men.

So all of Mances foreknowledge would be moot, he was trying to flee the far north even when the Nights Watch was up there. Which means, that faced with 10K northmen armed and armored, its most likely Mance would have engaged in parley first. Its too much of a risk to engage Ned while fleeing the wights. And for all Neds problems, he does listen.

I think they would have found common cause and the North (and Westeros) would be better for it.

 

[Charming Serpent]

Hm, I won't go into too many of the what if and too much detail.

Ned would march north with a host less than what Robb went south with. I agree on that, but then again, Eddard was cool and thoughtful. So, would he not have marshalled all of his strength since he did not know the wildling numbers?

The Nights Watch would join him and they would give him good numbers and reports about the wildlings in detail. The terrain, numbers, tactics etc etc ..

Mance would be forced to fight. The Others from the north along with his "captains" slavering at the mouth practically also woul force his hand, but Mance would parley first by from what we saw at the Wall. He would inform Eddard about what they were facing and might be able to show him proof. I am sure he could convince Ned to just wait a few days to prove his point. He might even go so far as to let Ned hold hostages in case Ned though he was buying time just to further show him that he meant buisness about the wights.

They would join forces, but we cant know the outcome at that time. In my opinion they would be forced back to the Wall where they would have to have the king, whichever at that time bring up the rest of the armies.

Thats just my basic overview on the run.

 

[Lubbock]

The war is won with Intel, i think the theory that Eddard would march with around 10.000 is accurate he wouldnt pull all the troops with him.
Once they arrive at the wall, the Nightwatch woulf function as eyes and ears and Mance would eventually end up in trouble. As their fighting at the wall showed they have no organization or teamwork, they fight as individuals instead of an unite, so odds 4:1 againt Stark is not too bad. They just have to hit the Wildlings Hard and Fast and they would crumble.
The X-Factor are the Others, Mance cannot turn back from whence they came, winter has come and they have cleared the land of food going forward, and if they were forced to retreat lots of fresh corpses to rise in the hands of the Others.
So If Mance becomes aware of the Eddard force, he would Parley, make a show of how many men he has ands then negotiate settlement at The Gift, if that fails then combat and the chaos that will lead too.
Just my two kroner on the subject