Using Human History as a guide Could Our Present Civilization Fall Into a New Dark Age?

[Venusian Broon]

The Permian Extinction event .

That's being pretty ultra-pessimistic! Hopefully not as bad as that.

 

[Mirannan]

True, but really in terms of geological timespans...human buildings are mayfly-like in their ability to last. It just goes to show that it requires a great deal of effort and energy to maintain stuff!

I'm more concerned on longer term effects on the whole environment that humans have managed to impact.

So far, very few effects IMHO. I suspect the biggest effects are the big dams we've built all over the place - or to be more exact, the lakes behind them. 100 years after we disappear, the CO2 goes away.

 

[Dave]

We will leave behind a thin layer of radioactive metal and carbon, mostly iron and plastics. That will all there will be to show.

 

[Venusian Broon]

We will leave behind a thin layer of radioactive metal and carbon, mostly iron and plastics. That will all there will be to show.

And all our cosmic litter beyond the orbit of Earth which, especially if in space, should hold together for a long while.

 

[BAYLOR]

And all our cosmic litter beyond the orbit of Earth which, especially if in space, should hold together for a long while.

Give or take a few million years of decay , those too shall pass.

 

[Venusian Broon]

Give or take a few million years of decay , those too shall pass.

I'd put a few dollars/pounds on Voyager 1 & 2 recognisably lasting hundreds of millions of years, possibly even billions.


Don't know how I'd collect those winnings if it were true though.

 

[BAYLOR]

I'd put a few dollars/pounds on Voyager 1 & 2 recognisably lasting hundreds of millions of years, possibly even billions.


Don't know how I'd collect those winnings if it were true though.

If it doesn't run black hole or wanter planet , Its very possible it might last. few billions years.

You might have difficulty collecting on that one.

 

[Mirannan]

I'd put a few dollars/pounds on Voyager 1 & 2 recognisably lasting hundreds of millions of years, possibly even billions.


Don't know how I'd collect those winnings if it were true though.

Pioneer 10 also belongs in that group.

 

[Venusian Broon]

If it doesn't run black hole or wanter planet , Its very possible it might last. few billions years.

You might have difficulty collecting on that one.

Yes, outer space is very,very,very LARGE!!!!

chances of these probes actually hitting anything that will destroy them are quite literally astronomical

 

[Lumens]

If they hit one speck of dust each year, after a few billion hits they would be unrecognisable, or covered up at least...? I'm not trying to make an argument but picturing what could happen.

Edit: Wouldn't also radiation have macroscopic effects after such a long time?

 

[Venusian Broon]

If they hit one speck of dust each year, after a few billion hits they would be unrecognisable, or covered up at least...? I'm not trying to make an argument but picturing what could happen.

Edit: Wouldn't also radiation have macroscopic effects after such a long time?

It's an interesting question. Dust/atoms picked up, could potentially also be knocked off...My initial guess would be that instead of accruing more mass, the ship would likely be pitted by numbers of tiny holes as collisions take place, so eventually it might just 'break up' or 'dissolve' if given enough time ???

But the other thing to note is that certain parts of the cosmos are dustier than others - most dust is, as you'd expect, to be in places that will generate the stuff - i.e. planetary systems, gas clouds where stars are being born etc. Hence the longer Voyager is out is the extreme 'desert' of interstellar space the less dust and other things will collide with it. From my own foray into this topic I found estimates of about 5 atoms per cubic centimetre as the average density of interplanetary space near Earth, whilst in deep interstellar space this density has been estimated to drops to ~1 atom per cubic metre. (I believe that's an estimate for interstellar space within the galaxy, god knows how much lower it might be in voids between galaxies. However as it stands the Voyagers are going nowhere near fast enough to escape the milky way, so it's going to be trundling around with us in reasonable cosmic proximity.)

True, cosmic rays should have some impact on the material of the craft - for example, causing defects in the atomic structure of the material of the spaceship - but I'm not sure it would on it's own, cause the craft to disintegrate.

 

[RJM Corbet]

I don't know if this point has been raised, but a danger is that when technology fails, we are left useless. We can't use a slide-rule, and many children in exam rooms are unable to tell the time from the analogue clock on the wall, when unable to consult use their phone, etc. When a company's computers fail all business has to stop. One domino sets off a landslide effect. Money isn't backed by gold anymore, etc.

How many of us could build a shelter in the wild and make a bow-and-arrow -- that's an extreme case. But most of us are useless to cope with an extended power cut.

Now I'll go back to the top and read through Baylor's thread, lol ...

 

[BAYLOR]

I don't know if this point has been raised, but a danger is that when technology fails, we are left useless. We can't use a slide-rule, and many children in exam rooms are unable to tell the time from the analogue clock on the wall, when unable to consult use their phone, etc. When a company's computers fail all business has to stop. One domino sets off a landslide effect. Money isn't backed by gold anymore, etc.

How many of us could build a shelter in the wild and make a bow-and-arrow -- that's an extreme case. But most of us are useless to cope with an extended power cut.

Now I'll go back to the top and read through Baylor's thread, lol ...

Not a happy thought .

 

[RJM Corbet]

We are utterly reliant on technology, and those who argue against the validity of quantum theory and 'science' including most fundamentalist religions -- both happy ones and extremely dangerous ones -- are happily doing so on Internet forums using devices and phones which are built using that same devious science whose 'unproven speculation' they dispute. So perhaps the issue is not so much that AI may take us over, but that the failure of AI would leave most modern societies helpless to cope without it?

EDIT: So the real question is 'could it happen'?

 

[svalbard]

We are utterly reliant on technology, and those who argue against the validity of quantum theory and 'science' including most fundamentalist religions -- both happy ones and extremely dangerous ones -- are happily doing so on Internet forums using devices and phones which are built using that same devious science whose 'unproven speculation' they dispute. So perhaps the issue is not so much that AI may take us over, but that the failure of AI would leave most modern societies helpless to cope without it?

EDIT: So the real question is 'could it happen'?

It could happen and if it does happen to answer your earlier question we are more than likely doomed. I am anyway. My idea of roughing is spending a night in 3 star hotel

 

[RJM Corbet]

It could happen and if it does happen to answer your earlier question we are more than likely doomed. I am anyway. My idea of roughing is spending a night in 3 star hotel

Ha!

There's been a major bank computer disaster this week in the UK, which is still going on -- a newly installed IT system giving thousands of people access to strangers' accounts, etc. ATMS unable to read cards, wages unpaid, Internet banking closed down. And they can't revert back to the old system. They're obviously saying they'll fix it, within a week or two -- but who knows if records haven't been permanently lost?

 

[sknox]

Many people would die, without a doubt. But technology can recover fairly quickly. We don't go all the way back to stone axes and loincloths. Every city is utterly dependent upon transportation networks that bring in food from farms. Yet cities have survived for millennia--you have to be pretty thorough to destroy one completely. Human beings are resilient. It's pretty much our superpower.

 

[Overread]

Many people would die, without a doubt. But technology can recover fairly quickly. We don't go all the way back to stone axes and loincloths. Every city is utterly dependent upon transportation networks that bring in food from farms. Yet cities have survived for millennia--you have to be pretty thorough to destroy one completely. Human beings are resilient. It's pretty much our superpower.

Actually destroying cities is easy - the critical issue with cities one thing - food.

Basically if you can keep food production and food distribution going civilization can continue. Sure technology shutting down would have huge impacts and cause a lot of disruption; but provided that the country is not reliant totally upon food import, then it should be possible to restore farming and distribution networks and manage food supplies.

However if food production is vastly reduced below minimum levels to support the population and there is little to no means to import or move food around then you get problems. In the past major civilizations have been lost due to climatic change (often prolonged periods of drought) which thus crippled food production and in turn caused mass starvation.
Today that's no different, save that the scale is vastly increased so the potential numbers who would starve would be far greater.


Also don't forget that so long as books exist a lot of knowledge is preserved as well. Sure the average person can't make a fire from sticks and twigs and a bit of flint; but the foundations and step by step of that process is well documented. Plus we know it CAN be done which is a huge boost to redeveloping lost understanding (often lost knowledge is specific methods or approaches to working with things that isn't documented or is rarely documented).




So really it all comes down to food - if you can ensure steady safe food supply you're fine; if its in vastly short supply then society crumbles and problems arise. Strong military pressure can keep things in order, though even that requires food to feed the military personal.

 

[Edward M. Grant]

Yet cities have survived for millennia--you have to be pretty thorough to destroy one completely.

If the power and food stop coming, most modern Western cities will be tombs within a week. It's not just the lack of supplies that would kill people, but the number of crazies who'd take advantage of the situation. If the power and food disappeared on Monday, you'd have chaos by Wednesday and cannibalism by Friday.

Sure, if it was just one city, you could send in the military to install generators, supply food and shoot the crazies. But any kind of widespread outage would kill millions. A civil war in America where people intentionally cut off supplies to the cities could kill a hundred million.

 

[Edward M. Grant]

Strong military pressure can keep things in order, though even that requires food to feed the military personal.

Worse than that, the military are now hugely dependent on motorized transport. If the gas stops coming, the military aren't going anywhere once their own stash runs dry. At least, nowhere they can't march to.