Thinking about disciplines.

[Omits]

Any suggestions for a list of the 'branches' of science and technology that will be advanced (and maybe how far) around the middle of this century? E.g.:
Medical
Physics
Space
Personal Comms
IOT
I guess the list is pretty long!

 

[Christine Wheelwright]

I'm fairly pessimistic when it comes to progress in space. I mean beyond near-Earth orbit. It remains a huge challenge in terms of traditional engineering (electrical, mechanical etc). Ever increasing compute power is great, but it doesn't get you everything you need in order to, say, put a human on Mars. There is also the motivation aspect (lack of a profit motive) and the political requirement to restrict spending of public money. I suspect it may be a good 15 years before a return to the Moon and as for Mars....I suspect never.

 

[Omits]

I'm fairly pessimistic when it comes to progress in space. I mean beyond near-Earth orbit. It remains a huge challenge in terms of traditional engineering (electrical, mechanical etc). Ever increasing compute power is great, but it doesn't get you everything you need in order to, say, put a human on Mars. There is also the motivation aspect (lack of a profit motive) and the political requirement to restrict spending of public money. I suspect it may be a good 15 years before a return to the Moon and as for Mars....I suspect never.

Interesting thanks. Yes and that list of disciplines must all progress for humans to survive on the Moon; the reason why I'm asking others to dip into their thoughts on this. I think private enterprise will eventually match or exceed political motivation probably for the same reasons (e.g. the Space race but also Space tourism) as profit will be many decades away. But Space drives advances. Mars? Someone will try but it will be after the Moon has proved much about 'long term' survival on another surface. The first try will likely be disastrous but then the astronauts will be adventurers (Shackleton types). I wonder how many is an optimum for such a journey?

 

[Montero]

Materials Science, Chemistry, Biochemistry, Biology - apart from anything else need to work those recycling waste things and algae tanks for your oxygen for your long space flight.(Though not entirely convinced on the algae due to water needs and its weight.) Efficient batteries and solar panels also needed.

 

[hitmouse]

We are currently in a golden age for precision/molecular/genomic medicine. Things are developing so quickly at present that it is quite difficult to plan services beyond 5 years with much confidence.

 

[Wayne Mack]

I would expect advances in:

• Medical tech
• Robotics
• Semiconductors and computer technology

I am skeptical of significant advances in:

• Physics
• Space
• Personal Comms
• IOT (I see a regression for this one, as people try to answer why it is needed)

I suspect that there will be a major reversal in:

• Connecting everything to a common network (the internet) and a return to sets of proprietary, semi-isolated networks.

 

[paranoid marvin]

Hoverboards

I'm fairly pessimistic when it comes to progress in space. I mean beyond near-Earth orbit. It remains a huge challenge in terms of traditional engineering (electrical, mechanical etc). Ever increasing compute power is great, but it doesn't get you everything you need in order to, say, put a human on Mars. There is also the motivation aspect (lack of a profit motive) and the political requirement to restrict spending of public money. I suspect it may be a good 15 years before a return to the Moon and as for Mars....I suspect never.

I agree. I will confidently state that there will be no manned spaceflights to that remote, forbidding planet in my lifetime.

 

[Omits]

I would expect advances in:

• Medical tech
• Robotics
• Semiconductors and computer technology

I am skeptical of significant advances in:

• Physics
• Space
• Personal Comms
• IOT (I see a regression for this one, as people try to answer why it is needed)

I suspect that there will be a major reversal in:

• Connecting everything to a common network (the internet) and a return to sets of proprietary, semi-isolated networks.

Thinking companion robotics driven/combined with cloud AI. There must be much AI research into most disciplines I would have thought. Androids.
I don't think Fusion and no great advance with gravity but maybe embedded electronics (bluetooth reception e.g. incoming calls direct to ear?). IOT, problem will be a slow internet and overloaded servers as there will be little advance in QC.

 

[paranoid marvin]

Hoverboards



I agree. I will confidently state that there will be no manned spaceflights to that remote, forbidding planet in my lifetime.

To expand on this, we are currently in a climate of 'no risk' space travel (or at least something closely approximating it). If we want to 100% guarantee the safety of the first travellers to Mars, it will never happen; or at least not happen for a very, very long time.

One of the reasons we got to the Moon in the 60s was that we took chances, and they (just about) paid off. Sadly a number of astronauts paid the ultimate price, but it could have been so much worse.

We know now (much more than we did back then) about the hazards of space flight, even to the Moon, which is literally on our doorstep. How much more hazardous is a trip to Mars? Probably times that by 100; perhaps 1000.

Until such time as necessity forces (or at least encourages) us to take chances, Mars flights will not be possible.

That's not to say that there are not brave pioneers out there willing to take the risk of going, just as happened with space flight in the 1960s, and with Polar expeditions and mountain climbers earlier. But the only way they can go is via corporations and governments who can afford the billions/trillions it costs to do so. And those corporations/governments seem to be very risk averse. Perhaps because they realise that a manned trip to Mars would be near suicidal.

Going back to the OP, I think that computer technology with continue to grow, and this will allow for expansions in many other areas.

 

[Omits]

T...
Going back to the OP, I think that computer technology with continue to grow, and this will allow for expansions in many other areas.

Hoverboards? Care to expand on that?

No to computer tech. Silicon or it's replacement is nearly exhausted. Will AI (demand for data) cause it to grind to a halt?

 

[paranoid marvin]

Hoverboards? Care to expand on that?

No to computer tech. Silicon or it's replacement is nearly exhausted. Will AI (demand for data) cause it to grind to a halt?

I think that the first 'proper' hoverboards will be with us by the end of the decade. And there will be a massive demand for them.

I do think that computer processing power will continue to expand. Either by making more sophisticated chips or making the most out of what we have, which I think is something we need to look more at doing.

Back in the day, quite advanced (for the time) video games could be made using just a few 'k' of memory. That was because programmers learnt all about the processors they had, and made the most out of them.

 

[Elckerlyc]

Technological developments and innovations is one thing, shortness of required resources is another. One of the main fields of research will be on durability and alternate power-sources. The threat of climate-change and the need to reduce CO2-emmissions may limit other research areas, mostly because of the struggle to acquire the needed resources and energy.
If the mining of bitcoins costs as much power as Australia uses, you may wonder how smart as a species we are.

 

[Omits]

I think that the first 'proper' hoverboards will be with us by the end of the decade. And there will be a massive demand for them.

I do think that computer processing power will continue to expand. Either by making more sophisticated chips or making the most out of what we have, which I think is something we need to look more at doing.

Back in the day, quite advanced (for the time) video games could be made using just a few 'k' of memory. That was because programmers learnt all about the processors they had, and made the most out of them.

I should have been clearer. By hoverboards are you saying anti-grav with no contact with the surface ? I can't see the wheeled type being tech progress! Correct me if I'm wrong here.

I think silicon has reached it's limit so we've had it. Quantum will not deliver for personal computing and only specialist applications unless there is a breakthrough in ambient operation. like fusion, more power in than out!

Most software ends up being a mash-up of monolithic code (hence occasional rewrites and crashes of OS's like Windows but doesn't do much apart from making it easier to patch later!). The vid games you refer to were pretty basic. Yes, coding in machine language results in fast apps but slow and expensive to produce, mind you I did it for some of the earlier 16 bit machines don't know what it's like now. Sorry steering away from OP question!

 

[Christine Wheelwright]

I agree that bio tech is the area in which the most astounding progress is being made. I don't think there are clownish Musk-like figures in that industry sucking all the oxygen out of the room. But for sure the quiet guys working in the corner are doing the good stuff.
I often say that bio technologists will crack the key to aging before we ever send a human to Mars. People look at me as though I'm crazy, but we will see.

 

[paranoid marvin]

I should have been clearer. By hoverboards are you saying anti-grav with no contact with the surface ? I can't see the wheeled type being tech progress! Correct me if I'm wrong here.

I think silicon has reached it's limit so we've had it. Quantum will not deliver for personal computing and only specialist applications unless there is a breakthrough in ambient operation. like fusion, more power in than out!

Most software ends up being a mash-up of monolithic code (hence occasional rewrites and crashes of OS's like Windows but doesn't do much apart from making it easier to patch later!). The vid games you refer to were pretty basic. Yes, coding in machine language results in fast apps but slow and expensive to produce, mind you I did it for some of the earlier 16 bit machines don't know what it's like now. Sorry steering away from OP question!

Hoverboards I think will be air cushioned or electromagnetic.

Yes 8 and 16 bit computer games were usually relatively basic (although some like Midwinter, Elite, and some Infocom adventures weren't) but programmers managed to fit an awful lot into a very limited amount of memory and running with a very weak CPU because there was no other choice; they were stuck with what they had.

Clever programming , an in-depth knowledge of the technology and some ingenious out-of-the-box thinking allowed them to create games that shouldn't have been possible given the hardware limitations. That doesn't happen half so much these days; they simply up the minimum specs required.

Similarly with computer technology and applications, it may be time to start better using what we have rather than simply throwing more memory and CPU processing power at the problem. I have often wondered if a programme could be made that created a virtual processing unit, that could be upgraded and/or 'souped up' to allow a computer to virtually upgrade itself, in the same way that humans fo to school or use computers. A computer building a virtual computer to enhance itself.

 

[Montero]

@paranoid marvin I can remember writing my PhD on one of the little Apple Macs initially one a friend let me use on a weekend, when they were out of the office, and finally one that I hired for two weeks. They were noted for the software and hardware engineers working together to optimise the performance. The computer had an operating system. All the software was on two 3 1/4 inch floppy disks. I was running the Mac equivalent of Word and Excel off those discs plus saving my files. The Thesis was about 200 pages of A4 with a lot of embedded tables and graphs. I remember the Mac running slow at times, but it never froze or crashed.

 

[Ambrose]

A major problem will emerge in the use of radio frequencies. Signal interference will become clamant in the higher bands. The resource is finite, but already finding ways of accommodating demands is proving difficult. And, of course, deliberate interference remains possible.

The above is most relevant for satellite usage. But satellites particularly in low earth orbit will also have problems if debris proliferates. The Kessler Syndrome would occur if a cascade of collisions between satellites and debris happens.

 

[paranoid marvin]

I agree that bio tech is the area in which the most astounding progress is being made. I don't think there are clownish Musk-like figures in that industry sucking all the oxygen out of the room. But for sure the quiet guys working in the corner are doing the good stuff.
I often say that bio technologists will crack the key to aging before we ever send a human to Mars. People look at me as though I'm crazy, but we will see.

There's an instruction set inside us when we are born that tells our bodies to grow, to develop, to renew - and when to stop doing those things.

Why shouldn't our bodies be able to continue to replace and renew cells? To grow third, fourth and fifth sets of teeth over the course of our lives? Even to regrow missing limbs and defective organs?

All of those things may simply be a case of reprogramming. And this of course would lead to healthier, longer lives.

The obvious problem being that this would lead to a massive overpopulation crisis. Governments are struggling now to deal with an increasing aging population; if the average life expectancy was increased by even 10 years, there would be serious repercussions.

Which makes me wonder whether any significant breakthrough would ever become public knowledge.

 

[Christine Wheelwright]

There's an instruction set inside us when we are born that tells our bodies to grow, to develop, to renew - and when to stop doing those things.

Why shouldn't our bodies be able to continue to replace and renew cells? To grow third, fourth and fifth sets of teeth over the course of our lives? Even to regrow missing limbs and defective organs?

All of those things may simply be a case of reprogramming. And this of course would lead to healthier, longer lives.

The obvious problem being that this would lead to a massive overpopulation crisis. Governments are struggling now to deal with an increasing aging population; if the average life expectancy was increased by even 10 years, there would be serious repercussions.

Which makes me wonder whether any significant breakthrough would ever become public knowledge.

Interesting final point. I think anti-aging breakthroughs (I mean real ones, not skin cream) would be hugely profitable for their developers. Is there an organized cabal of deep state operators who could prevent the knowledge from escaping? I doubt it. That's the stuff of conspiracy theories. The real-world is unfortunately much more chaotic and less controlled