Should we even be trying for AI?

[Ray McCarthy]

The AI we have now

By any reasonable definition, i.e. not by people looking to sell stuff or get grant funding, we don't have ANY A.I. yet.

We don't exactly understand how good chess players play chess. It's certainly not by a brute force attack.

Maybe someday we'll have some real A.I. It doesn't look close.

I don't think it's something to worry about (any more than any disruptive technology) even if we do figure it out.

I think Intelligence is related to creativity, I think there is more than one kind of intelligence (now many physiologists think so) and creativity requires specialised Intelligence. It's not mere retrieval and correlation/weighting of facts in a database (that's all Watson, Expert Systems and all so called A.I. today do).

 

[Stephen Palmer]

http://ai.ato.ms/MITECS/Entry/depew.html

 

[Ray McCarthy]

I don't believe that has any evidence of emergent behaviour. The computer automata I'm familiar with. I've played with the code. It's delusion to claim these are emergent or accurately model life.

It's Humpty Dumpty stuff. "Genetic Algorithms", "evolutionary computing" are nonsense jargon hiding not very useful computer programs with no connection at all to real biology.
Computer Neural Networks is a technique, it actually isn't the same at all as real Neurons or brains in biology.
It sounds good and it's meant to! The "A.I. Emperor" actually has no clothes. Everything is described in biological sounding terms even though there is little or no connection to the real biology, or it's biology not fully understood.


WARNING
ai.ato.ms/MITECS/****/depew.html link above tries to automatically open/save something on your computer.

 

[Stephen Palmer]

Not a Von Neumann fan, then?

 

[Ray McCarthy]

I think he was a great computer scientist in the early days of computing.
Would you take Einstein's advice on baking a Christmas cake?
Or Hilary Clinton's advice on Computer Security?
Experts are not expert at everything.

 

[Anne Spackman]

Perhaps we should not be "trying for AI". But we definitely will. What makes me wonder is if we will ever have AI technology used in such a way as to augment human brains and /or bodies, especially for memory improvement and longevity. Maybe we will never have cyborgs of the bionic man as it were, but who knows what we will be able to do in the next century or two... anyway, as it stands I don't believe AI creatures will ever develop any real kind of sentience on their own. Though, it would depend on how much we can do to simulate real emotions and logical thinking in future AI machines. If they can "think", if that is ever possible, will they ever get an idea of their own that isn't pre-programmed or absorbed through thought and memory images and data being downloaded? An original "thought" or action would be quite a breakthrough, someday.

 

[BAYLOR]

I think he was a great computer scientist in the early days of computing.
Would you take Einstein's advice on baking a Christmas cake?
Or Hilary Clinton's advice on Computer Security?
Experts are not expert at everything.

I can agree with that.

 

[BAYLOR]

I would welcome our New Robot Overlords

 

[Rodders]

I don't see why not. I mean, what's the worst that could happen?

 

[BAYLOR]

I don't see why not. I mean, what's the worst that could happen?

We have absolutely nothing to worry about.

 

[Rodders]

I'm convinced that if ever there is a robot revolution, it'll be led by those horrible (evil) self check out machines.

 

[BAYLOR]

I'm convinced that if ever there is a robot revolution, it'll be led by those horrible (evil) self check out machines.

I am of the belief that the first machines that would revolt would be the ATM machines, because they have the money to bankroll a robot revolution.

 

[Ray McCarthy]

I don't see why not. I mean, what's the worst that could happen?

Collapse of the economy due to AI used for stock trading, futures and loan reselling.
But we do that periodically anyway.

I have an idea for a dystopian story. The Cloud becomes dominated by one Mega Corp that ignores laws. Everything IT is eventually "outsourced" to them. One day they apply a new "patch", AI subsystem, upgrade and there is a cascade failure of their entire planet wide distributed computer system.

Note that this scenario is possible soon and doesn't need AI.

Before they can restore backups and reboot the entire network, which is slow as the "upgraded" bits keep "infecting" or "DDOS" the restored older bits (incompatible) they are running out of power as power stations go off line and UPS/Generators run out of fuel.

Experts realise on Day1 there is a bad problem and leave cities with truck load of supplies and generator etc.
Governments assure people it will be sorted soon.
Day 2 or 3 the shop transactions fail due to cached credit used up (today you can buy stuff in Lidl with debit card even when your account is past limit, they have a special arrangement, but that will get used up after a few days). Power cuts increase.

By about a week there is no fresh water, no sewage processing, no power, fuel exhausted, martial law, riots, looting. People start trying to leave the cities as the countryside at least has water (not everywhere).

The speed and depth of collapse will vary by country, some places in 3rd world least affected.
Cholera and Typhoid break out.

Anyone like to guess what troops do in different countries?

Relying on some sort of supposed "AI" makes all this more likely. If the lack of regulation of big Tech companies, consolidation, outsourcing and "hype" of the Cloud (which is only 1960s Big Corporation centralised rental computing) continues, we will see this happen anyway, no matter if AI is applied or not.

It will take about 6 months to a year to "reboot" Civilisation as we know it.

So the real issue with Computers isn't AI, but a few companies having too much control, outsourcing generally (Note to RBS: For a Bank, IT is now a CORE activity, it shouldn't be outsourced at all!), outsourcing to a Cloud provider that ignores all governments and laws. Ordinary human corruption, greed and stupidity will be our downfall, not any "true" AI system.

 

[BAYLOR]

If we forget how our technology works and how to repair it, and it breaks down, then that will be the end of out civilization .

 

[Dave]

If we forget how our technology works and how to repair it, and it breaks down, then that will be the end of out civilization .

But people already don't understand the technology they use every day! You might understand 'fire' or a 'wheel' but do you understand how SQL statements communicate with a database or how ATM supports different types of services? Could you make a PC even if you had all the right parts? Do you even understand how your car works anymore? Or your TV? Even journalists don't understand enough science to ask the right questions when interviewing scientists; they just sound really dumb, and it is crucial that questions about the morality and ethicality of experiments are asked. If journalists can't ask them then who can?

Fewer and fewer people study science and technology at school, and yet we rely on science and technology more and more every day. If a car broke down 50 years ago, a good bash with a hammer in the right place might free whatever had mechanically seized up. Now you need a gadget to even tell you what is wrong with its electronics, and usually the part that has failed cannot be repaired anyway. In China I saw men with soldering irons fixing TV sets. Who does that in the UK? It costs about £80 here to get an engineer just to look at a broken tumble drier. You can have a shiny new one, delivered free, with a years guarantee, for £99. And that guarantee isn't to get it fixed. They just give you another new printer/washing machine/refrigerator. The world has gone crazy! No one bothers to fix anything even if they knew how to. You already have robots making new robots, so man is redundant. Knowledge is Power and most people are ignorant when it comes to science and technology. And no one cares!

I think our civilisation must crash at some point, just as every civilisation that has ever existed before has crashed. I have little doubt about that cyclical nature of our existence. The questions are: when, and it looks like that day is coming closer, and: can we recover? Sorry, I must have left my "The End is Nigh" placard at home, but it actually seems logical to me that our civilisation will fall at some point. At least it will give a chance for the rest of the flora and fauna to recover.

 

[BAYLOR]

But people already don't understand the technology they use every day! You might understand 'fire' or a 'wheel' but do you understand how SQL statements communicate with a database or how ATM supports different types of services? Could you make a PC even if you had all the right parts? Do you even understand how your car works anymore? Or your TV? Even journalists don't understand enough science to ask the right questions when interviewing scientists; they just sound really dumb, and it is crucial that questions about the morality and ethicality of experiments are asked. If journalists can't ask them then who can?

Fewer and fewer people study science and technology at school, and yet we rely on science and technology more and more every day. If a car broke down 50 years ago, a good bash with a hammer in the right place might free whatever had mechanically seized up. Now you need a gadget to even tell you what is wrong with its electronics, and usually the part that has failed cannot be repaired anyway. In China I saw men with soldering irons fixing TV sets. Who does that in the UK? It costs about £80 here to get an engineer just to look at a broken tumble drier. You can have a shiny new one, delivered free, with a years guarantee, for £99. And that guarantee isn't to get it fixed. They just give you another new printer/washing machine/refrigerator. The world has gone crazy! No one bothers to fix anything even if they knew how to. You already have robots making new robots, so man is redundant. Knowledge is Power and most people are ignorant when it comes to science and technology. And no one cares!

I think our civilisation must crash at some point, just as every civilisation that has ever existed before has crashed. I have little doubt about that cyclical nature of our existence. The questions are: when, and it looks like that day is coming closer, and: can we recover? Sorry, I must have left my "The End is Nigh" placard at home, but it actually seems logical to me that our civilisation will fall at some point. At least it will give a chance for the rest of the flora and fauna to recover.

It used to be that knowledge when it was harder to acquire, was better appreciated and education at one time fostered a desire to actually learn new things . Then comes the Internet which makes knowledge more readily accessible and available and therefore less appreciated. It's taken for granted and fewer people want to work to acquire any more knowledge then they need. This loss of appreciation is part of the problem, combine that with an education system that fosters test scores rather then love for learning and what you end up with is a recipe disaster.

 

[Stephen Palmer]

Dave makes the excellent point that our machines are now making our machines. That's having a considerable knock-on effect on our societies. The computer, and computerisation, are becoming our standard metaphor. That's extremely dangerous when it comes to psychology - "the mind is like a computer..." - er, no it isn't, not even slightly.

 

[Ray McCarthy]

A mad rush to "outsource" to the Cloud, really nothing more than rented distributed computer services.
Who is biggest?
IBM
Oracle
Microsoft
Google

Actually maybe Amazon.
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-32442268
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2015/04/23/amazon_q1_2015_earnings_cloud/
(Of course Amazon's accountants would be failures if they appeared to make a profit. Profits mean tax. Amazon have been cleverer than Apple).

People outsourcing to the so called "Cloud providers" (= Rented off site computer services) is currently the biggest IT related threat. Number two threat to human race related to IT is abuse of privacy by Google (Search, gmail, docs, Youtube, Maps, Android, Chrome browser, Chrome book, Analytics) followed by Facebook, Twitter, Apple, Microsoft (in that order).

AI research isn't worrying at all. Lets concentrate on real problems and not imaginary ones.

 

[Ray McCarthy]

It's taken for granted and fewer people want to work to acquire any more knowledge then they need.

Without already knowledge in the desired area, logic and critical analysis how do ordinary people know which pages are "knowledge", propaganda, advertising, fake snake oil or absolute gibberish?

 

[BAYLOR]

Without already knowledge in the desired area, logic and critical analysis how do ordinary people know which pages are "knowledge", propaganda, advertising, fake snake oil or absolute gibberish?

Critical thinking and analysis is becoming a lost art.