Will the realm make it?

Discussion in 'George R R Martin' started by Kharon, Feb 29, 2012.

  1.  
    Kharon

    Kharon New Member

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    The first option is the simplier: yes, a new Targaryen will conquer the shattered Seven Kingdoms, with the supporting old/new noble houses.

    The second one is the more exciting.
    The Targaryens can't defeat the usurpers, but none of them is able to defeat the others, so we get a few smaller kingdoms, like the North & Riverlands (and possibly the Vale) against the southern-western provinces. Except Dorne, of course. Like the Iron Islands, they will fight their independence.

    The question is, whics one is more likely? And if plan 'b' happens, who will rule the knigdoms?
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    The Imp

    The Imp New Member

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    If by "the others" you mean The Others, the 7 Kingdoms will be screwedd. it won't matterif they are fragmented or united.

    Welcome btw :)
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    devilsgrin

    devilsgrin Member

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    honestly, with George at the helm, i can't see anything resembling a happy ending. So assuredly no new Targaryen dynasty. Especially since Dany can't have anymore kids. Aegon could, but they would then be no different to any other House in Westeros.

    I think The Others will ultimately be defeated. But what emerges will be a shattered westeros. No unified 7 kingdoms, perhaps two, three or more. At least South and North will be very unlikely to be unified.

    The Throne in King's Landing will definitely go to whomever the Tyrell's want on it - and i reckon we'll have an uneasy alliance between the Tyrells and Martells to ensure that. The who is harder to say, i would easily see Doran Martell favouring Aegon, allowing him to put Arianne on the throne beside him. If we have a "three heads" situation, Aegon, with Arianne and Margeary (so long as she survives, and i doubt she's in any real trouble with The Faith, i'm sure they just want some more concessions from the Small Council, and Mace Tyrell will provide).
    In the North, Sansa will take the "Throne" i suspect, or will at least be like the Queen of Thorns to Mace Tyrell, the power behind the throne. Petyr i fear is doomed. Whether at her hands or not, Sansa will outlast him. If not Sansa on the throne, Rickon is assured. Jon cannot be Lord Stark, and much as he might like it, i suspect a courageous, Kingdoms saving death from Lord Snow.
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    Boaz

    Boaz Thaphireth!

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    The Seven Kingdoms were united by the Targaryens. They united the first six because they had three huge dragons. Dorne was brought into the fold because the Targs could call the combined might of the other six kingdoms to subdue Dorne.

    I'm going to assume here that either Bran, Jon, Dany, Sam, Davos, Thoros, Marwyn, Victarion's Red Priest (his name escapes me) or Arya will find a way to defeat The Other. This will be a very messy process. I believe most, if not all, of the North will be only smoking ruins by the time this is accomplished. The Others may march all the way to The Twins. (Most of us would like to see the Freys get theirs.)

    But when The Other is defeated, certain political realities must be faced. The savior... TPTWP, the three-headed dragon, the Stallion who mounts the World, Azor Ahai reborn... whoever... will be in a position to at least claim a portion of the Seven Kingdoms for his/her own.

    Another reality is that neither the Tyrells, the Lannisters, the Arryns, nor the Martells will have their lands, their armies, or their economies destroyed by the Others. They'll still be strong and given their proximity to King's Landing, they'll have a major say in who rules there. The Lannisters, the Martells, and the Arryns all ruled independent kingdoms before the Targaryens... while the Tyrells were promoted to fill the vacancy of the Gardener family... made extinct by dragonfire. All of these realms were invaded, conquered, liberated, restored, etc... except for the Vale. The Arryns are legendary for remaining independent for over three thousand years. The only power to subjugate them did so with dragons. And so I contend that Dany is the only one who can rule a united Seven Kingdoms...

    ...that or Euron actually is able to control dragons with his horn. Even though he could theoretically unite the Seven Kingdoms with his dragons, I shudder at the thought...

    The Ironborn ruled and raided the Riverlands for millennia. The Riverlands may belong to the Crown, the Iron Islands, Harrenhal, or Casterly Rock, but I think it will suffer from wars, raids, and banditry for decades to come. The only hope for the Riverlands is Dany... and her dragons.

    The other reality is that the Targaryens will have returned. Will they unite or will they fight each other? If they fight, then I don't know what will happen. And if Dany dies then the Seven Kingdoms will remain fragmented.
  5.  
    Brian Turner

    Brian Turner Brian G. Turner Staff Member

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    As fire seems a very efficient way to dispose of Others, I'd always presumed at some point we'd see at least one dragon flying over masses of Others and creating a massive fire out of them.
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    The Imp

    The Imp New Member

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    Brilliant as always. Nice to see you posting.

    I think that the question of whether or not one can warg into a dragon will be answered in response to that magic horn.
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    Boaz

    Boaz Thaphireth!

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    Nice to see me posting? It's always wonderful to Brian in here!!!!
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    Tywin

    Tywin I always pay my debts.

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    Except for the Vale and the North you mean, right?
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    Boaz

    Boaz Thaphireth!

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    Tywin, I did not mention the Starks with those other houses, so you are correct that I did not mean the North.

    It also occurs to me, that just like Dorne was conquered by Targs riding dragons, so too were the Iron Islands never subjugated by the mainlanders until dragons were used against them. So unless the rest of Westeros is united or dragons are fielded against them, I'd say the Ironmen will remain independent at the story's end.
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    Rufio

    Rufio New Member

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    Don't forget the Iron Islands were later subjugated again by Robert without the aid of any winged beasties. But I agree they will be independent, or better, at the end despite making powerful enemies in House Tyrell.
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    Boaz

    Boaz Thaphireth!

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    Rufio, I'm not forgetting. Just like Dorne, the Iron Islands fell to the combined might of the other Great Houses... but the only reason they're united is that Aegon the Conqueror had three huge lizards. So if a Targ does not sit the Iron Throne with dragons at her, or his, back, then I think the political will, warchest, and manpower will be lacking to subjugate House Greyjoy. That's just my two cents.
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    Clansman

    Clansman Lochaber Axeman, QC

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    Are there many in Westeros who would object to the Greyjoys being wiped out? Can't say that they are a terribly likeable bunch. Not as bad as the Freys (who just might be hunted down and slaughtered by everyone at some point), mind you.
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    The Imp

    The Imp New Member

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    I would think that the Iron Islanders are more unversally dispised than the Freys. A big part of our perception of the Freys is based on The Red Wedding. There are many who supported them, both figuratively and literally.
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    Tywin

    Tywin I always pay my debts.

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    Very true, however out of those two houses only the Freys are despised by the gods.
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    Eulalia

    Eulalia New Member

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    There are a few things that could happen. Victarion could unite with Dany. Theon could find some redemption and act as some sort of intermediary between the two cultures. Asha (wanted peace in the first place) could negotiate some solution.

    I have wondered whether the dragons would be able to create dragonglass out of rocks or stone ruins that could be used by great effect to fashion weapons against the Others (when it really gets out that they can be killed by this).

    Don't have any idea what Bran is going to do, but it will probably be some large role, and possibly heroic. He has the potential to be some sort of communications switchboard.

    But yes, the dragons are a game changer, and a little warging will likely help too.

    Have no idea what Melisandre will do.

    Then, there is the Watch, Jon, and the Vows.
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    Rufio

    Rufio New Member

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    Fair points... but, perhaps I'm misremembering, but I'm sure there's some detail that the first Greyjoy rebellion was largely put down by 'the north' although they had support from the King of course. I still think a strong northern or western kingdom could subdue the Iron Islands. I suppose because of their position and character they will always try to rise again.
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    The Imp

    The Imp New Member

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    it's my recollection that Dorne was not conquered by the Targs as much as they agreed to join and form the 7 Kingdoms. Weren't the Targs relecutant to invade them? Or am I making that up?
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    Rufio

    Rufio New Member

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    I can't really remember, they didn't kneel like the north did, that's why there was a later attempt to conquer them (the Young Dragon). But after being conquered they straight away killed all the people left in charge. I think they've always been semi-independent from the Iron Throne.
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    Boaz

    Boaz Thaphireth!

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    Guys, I tend to try to read between the lines and supply missing information... but the problem is that my own perceptions are biased, my memory is faulty, and Martin has simply not given me all the information I need. I'll try to let you know when I'm guessing...

    Regarding Balon Greyjoy's Rebellion against Robert.... Eddard indeed supplied troops (remember Jorah was knighted for being one of the very first over the walls of Pyke... after Thoros with his flaming sword). Early in the rebellion, Euron smashed the Lannister fleet. Later, Stannis (presumably with great help from the Redwynes and Tyrells) defeated the Iron Fleet, led by Victarion, in the decisive action at sea that opened the Iron Islands to an amphibious assault. I'd assume that Tywin Lannister, as Warden of the West, and Hoster Tully, as Balon's overlord, would have been the two men held responsible for Balon's good behavior.

    So I think it's fair to say that Robert brought troops from many areas to deal with Balon. One reason for Robert to do this was to remind the Lords of Westeros whom they served. Another would be to bind them to him through the shedding of blood. And a third would be to allow them to share in the glory. Finally, the participating nobles would see firsthand what happens to traitors... thus spreading the news to every part of the realm.

    But I don't think that the North could ever defeat and destroy the Iron Islands. The North would need a fleet capable of defeating the Ironborn upon the open sea and that in and of itself would save the Ironmen. The North does not possess harbors nor infrastructure to build a fleet on their west coast... nor do they have the shore defences to protect any ships being built. The North would have to build their fleet on their east coast, specifically at White Harbor. Then they'd have to sail the fleet around the southern tip of Westeros and back up to the Iron Islands. To resupply the fleet with provisions they'd need good alliances or trading agreements with the Storm Lords, the Free Cities, Dorne, Highgarden/Oldtown, and/or Casterly Rock/Lannisport. Furthermore, I do not believe that this northern fleet would be one-tenth as experienced at sea combat as the Ironborn. I'd assume this journey would end up like the voyage of the Russian Baltic Fleet in 1905.

    Regarding Dorne's union with the rest of Westeros... I confess that I did forget that Dorne was only briefly conquered and that Dorne later joined Targaryen hegemony peacefully. Doh!!!

    Rufio, thanks for pointing that out to me.

    Daeron, the Young Dragon, conquered Dorne while still a teenager. He did so without the help of Balerion, Vhaegar and Meraxes (Aegon the Conqueror's orginal dragons). He only held Dorne for a year before the Dornish successfully rebelled. Forty years later, Daeron II, brought Dorne into the Targaryen kingdom through marriage. But as Doran tells Arianne in AFFC, Dorne is not strong enough to openly defy King's Landing. Sure, the Dornishmen are valiant and the the weather and terrain of Dorne are unkind to invaders, but Dorne does simply not have the manpower to hold off multiple attacks from a unified coalition of Lannister, Tyrell, Baratheon, and others.

    So I assume that the Martells read the writing on the wall and saved Dorne a crushing defeat by personally allying themselves with the Targaryen monarchy.

    It was only a hundred years from Daeron II to Joffrey, yet Dorne supplied a number of princesses to House Targaryen... most notably Doran's sister, Elia. This arrangement is so strong that Dorne sees themselves as permanent allies to House Targaryen.

    That's just my two cents.

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