Foundation & Empire

chornedsnorkack said:

The whole story of Independent Merchants shows that Foundation COULDN´T enforce policies against Traders which were too easy and profitable to evade.

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Good point. Hadn´t thought of that. But all your good points on this issue still aren´t enough to make a plothole out of merchants failing to successfully spy on the Empire. They could have--should have, in fact, but didn´t have to, nor wanted to, maybe. As long as this statement stands, not spying on Empire is not a plothole, just badly handled foreign policy by Foundation. One must allow a margin for human and political error.

On this issue there might be split votes though. Some will indeed consider this a plothole, depending on how deep they delve. I wouldn´t, as I don´t see enough evidence to exclude all other possibilities.

Ihe said:

But all your good points on this issue still aren´t enough to make a plothole out of merchants failing to successfully spy on the Empire. They could have--should have, in fact, but didn´t have to, nor wanted to, maybe. As long as this statement stands, not spying on Empire is not a plothole, just badly handled foreign policy by Foundation. One must allow a margin for human and political error.

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Failing to specifically spy on the Empire is not a big plothole. Individual traders had little to gain by spying as such, so no incentive to take the cost and risk. Foundation central government could plausibly have made the political error to not actively sponsor spying on Empire - though Mallow shouldn´t have done that.

But no individual Traders out of many taking the option to try and trade with Empire once Mallow had shown it was possible was a big plothole.

chornedsnorkack said:

But no individual Traders out of many taking the option to try and trade with Empire once Mallow had shown it was possible was a big plothole.

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I don´t think the author denies this in any form. There could´ve been other traders doing business close to or in the Empire itself. I don´t think the book gives enough (or any) information regarding this to come to any categorical conclusion "for" or "against". But that is not the point of discussion, failure to predict the attack because there wasn´t enough preemptive spying is (or at least that´s what I thought we were discussing).

Summarizing: covertly trading with the Empire and spying on it didn´t necessarily have to go hand in hand. With this agreed upon, failing to spy on Empire through traders isn´t a proper plothole (a possible oversight by Asimov could´ve been: why not keep an eye on Empire with Foundation´s dedicated military personnel? This convo´s been going for so long I don´t even know if we covered this possibility--although in all fairness, many of the arguments that I feel absolved the traders of this could also have been used for the military). Then that´s more or less settled, awesome.

Now, on the point of Mallow opening up trade with the Empire for all other traders: There being no mention of ongoing trading with Empire in the book is not so much a plothole as it is simple omission of detail by the author. This issue isn´t explored in the book, but that doesn´t mean it didn´t happen to certain extent. If this story-thread wasn´t explored, it was simply because it didn´t affect the story in any significant way (it could´ve, but didn´t have to--the scope of the politics and world-building in the book can assure you that there is a perfectly reasonable explanation to this, even though the explanation itself is not specified). The thing with big-scope SF is that you can get away with doing this. You can omit potentially important info without incurring in a plothole, simply because the all-encompassing scope allows for other unspecified--but logical--reasons to sort it out automatically, so that you, as the writer, can dive in unburdened into the thick of the main plot. It ends up with tons of circumstantial evidence to build its case, without really having to provide hard evidence. Might be a bit unfair, and, maybe, irresponsible of the author to not develop this issue. I can see why that would bother you. But I won´t call that a plothole. An annoyance for those who want the whole unabridged story, most definitely. But a loose end is not a plothole.

Ihe said:

I don´t think the author denies this in any form. There could´ve been other traders doing business close to or in the Empire itself. I don´t think the book gives enough (or any) information regarding this to come to any categorical conclusion "for" or "against". But that is not the point of discussion, failure to predict the attack because there wasn´t enough preemptive spying is (or at least that´s what I thought we were discussing).

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Foundation did not predict attack of Korell, either, despite the 300 ships per year that had visited Korell in a single year. But when ships started disappearing, Foundation at least had a pool of informants to draw on, incl. Mallow.
Nor was Foundation a mystery for Korell, and Korell did not regard merchants or missionaries as "wizards".

Ihe said:

Now, on the point of Mallow opening up trade with the Empire for all other traders: There being no mention of ongoing trading with Empire in the book is not so much a plothole as it is simple omission of detail by the author. This issue isn´t explored in the book, but that doesn´t mean it didn´t happen to certain extent. If this story-thread wasn´t explored, it was simply because it didn´t affect the story in any significant way (it could´ve, but didn´t have to--the scope of the politics and world-building in the book can assure you that there is a perfectly reasonable explanation to this, even though the explanation itself is not specified).

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Ignorance of both sides strongly indicates that there was no trading. Devers easily travelled to Trantor on his ship. And Mallow was willing to give away a personal nuclear shield to the techman (of course keeping his own). If a merchant after Mallow had decided to make a profit by selling a nuclear shield to the Emperor, the whole court, incl. Riose, would have known they are possible.

chornedsnorkack said:

Foundation did not predict attack of Korell, either, despite the 300 ships per year that had visited Korell in a single year. But when ships started disappearing, Foundation at least had a pool of informants to draw on, incl. Mallow.
Nor was Foundation a mystery for Korell, and Korell did not regard merchants or missionaries as "wizards".

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So even if they traded freely, they still would´ve failed to prevent anything anyway, be it Korell or Empire. Trading alone wasn´t enough to keep an eye on military operations. I would think the pool of informants were civilians mostly. Nothing less than military grade spying would´ve done the trick, and even that could fail.

chornedsnorkack said:

Ignorance of both sides strongly indicates that there was no trading. Devers easily travelled to Trantor on his ship. And Mallow was willing to give away a personal nuclear shield to the techman (of course keeping his own). If a merchant after Mallow had decided to make a profit by selling a nuclear shield to the Emperor, the whole court, incl. Riose, would have known they are possible.

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The shield broke down soon after Mallow left, no? There was no chance of it falling on Empire´s hands.

Ihe said:

So even if they traded freely, they still would´ve failed to prevent anything anyway, be it Korell or Empire. Trading alone wasn´t enough to keep an eye on military operations. I would think the pool of informants were civilians mostly. Nothing less than military grade spying would´ve done the trick, and even that could fail.

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Trading enabled Foundation to detect the threat of Korell and trick Commdor. Although he was being absurdly stupid. But if there had been zero Foundation ships previously trading with Korell, Foundation would have lost zero out of zero ships, rather than three out of three hundred, and Mallow would not have known to offer the bait of free trade to Korell out of all republics and kingdoms of Periphery.

Trading allowed Foundation the level of general situational alertness about Korell.
Note that while Mallow was the first Trader to offer free trade to Korell, he was not the first Trader to trade at Korell.

Jorane Sutt said:

But you've come back, which hasn't always happened. Three trade ships, inviolate under the Conventions, have disappeared within the territory of the Republic in the last year.

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Which "the Conventions", by the way?
In the selfsame conversation:

Jorane Sutt said:

Since the Four Kingdoms accepted the Foundation Convention, we have had to deal with considerable groups of dissident populations in each nation.

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"The Foundation Convention" here referred created considerable dissident groups. Presumably by establishing political control of Foundation.
Republic of Korell was not at the time under political control of Foundation.
Then which "the Convention" made the three Foundation ships "inviolate"?
How did Foundation trade ships get to be "inviolate" in the territory of Republic of Korell, rather than be destroyed or captured for trespassing alone?

chornedsnorkack said:

How did Foundation trade ships get to be "inviolate" in the territory of Republic of Korell, rather than be destroyed or captured for trespassing alone?

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The Foundation at that time had so much space-cred that they were respected to the point of being "inviolate" even in territories not under their jurisdiction--a bit of a mystical semi-deity status. But well, in this instance, I agree that this is a flaw in Asimov's logic. But this mistake doesn't reflect much past this conversation (since the ships' disappearance is independent of their "untouchable" status), so if you consider this a plothole, it is a micron-sized one, self-contained in a single sentence.

chornedsnorkack said:

Trading allowed Foundation the level of general situational alertness about Korell.

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But Korell is not the Empire, and Foundation didn't have to walk on eggshells in Korell (since they weren't perceived as a real threat)

chornedsnorkack said:

Note that while Mallow was the first Trader to offer free trade to Korell, he was not the first Trader to trade at Korell.

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Yes. But I don't see your point. What does this have to do with the discussion at hand?

Ihe said:

The Foundation at that time had so much space-cred that they were respected to the point of being "inviolate" even in territories not under their jurisdiction--a bit of a mystical semi-deity status.

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My guess is that Foundation had some sort of bilateral agreement with Korell that gave them the safe conduct, with conditions (that Mallow was provoked to violate, and did not violate).

Ihe said:

But Korell is not the Empire, and Foundation didn't have to walk on eggshells in Korell (since they weren't perceived as a real threat)

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Foundation walked in eggshells in Askone as well.

Ihe said:

Yes. But I don't see your point. What does this have to do with the discussion at hand?

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Foundation had to establish first contact with thousands of independent states of Periphery. Askone, Korell, Glyptal IV, unnamed others.
Who did make the first contact?

I'm finding I'm not fresh enough on Foundation to keep up with all this XD. I can't argue any of these points, as Mallow's arc is the one I remember the least. I will take your word for it.

Then back to Foundation and Empire:
The aims of the spy mission they did undertake...

Isaac Asimov said:

But this is the first time we are in danger of its direct attack, so that strength becomes terribly menacing. If it can be beaten, it must be once again as in all past crises by a method other than pure force. We must find the weak side of our enemy and attack it there."

"And what is that weak side?" asked the fourth man. "Do you intend advancing a theory?"

"No. That is the point I'm leading up to. Our great leaders of the past always saw the weak points of their enemies and aimed at that. But now-"

There was a helplessness in his voice, and for a moment none volunteered a comment.

Then the fourth man said, "We need spies."

Forell turned to him eagerly. "Right! I don't know when the Empire will attack. There may be time."

"Hober Mallow himself entered the Imperial dominions," suggested the second man.

But Forell shook his head. "Nothing so direct. None of us are precisely youthful; and all of us are rusty with red-tape and administrative detail. We need young men that are in the field now-"

"The independent traders?" asked the fourth man.

And Forell nodded his, head and whispered, "If there is yet time-"

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Express aims: find out the weak points of the enemy and time of attack.
Result: abject failure. Lathan Devers was taken captive. He may have been treated well and got a lot of interesting information - for himself and the readers. But nothing whatsoever for Foundation!
For Lathan reported nothing back to Foundation till after the war was fought and over.
Worse, it was an inbuilt abject failure. It was predictable that Lathan might not be permittted to report back to Foundation. Foundation themselves was not letting captive soldiers of Riose report either. And there was no plan in place to let Lathan report - there was not a plausible plan which fell through, because then we should have heard of how it failed.
Forell would have been better off not sending Devers in the first place. There was little to gain by the mission as planned, and something to lose.

chornedsnorkack said:

And there was no plan in place to let Lathan report

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He could've reported back if he hadn't been caught. But I don't remember: was part of the plan for him to get captured in the first place? If so, then that indeed is a plothole.

Riose did eventually complain that Devers yielded too easily.
Now, as for what the weakness of Empire was: note how parallel the opponents of First and Fourth Crisis were!
Four Kingdoms outnumbered Foundation 50 000 to one. Empire outnumbered Four Kingdoms 200 000 to one.
In both cases, the overwhelming force was actually disunited.
But what Foundation actually did about it was oddly divergent!

chornedsnorkack said:

Riose did eventually complain that Devers yielded too easily.
Now, as for what the weakness of Empire was: note how parallel the opponents of First and Fourth Crisis were!
Four Kingdoms outnumbered Foundation 50 000 to one. Empire outnumbered Four Kingdoms 200 000 to one.
In both cases, the overwhelming force was actually disunited.
But what Foundation actually did about it was oddly divergent!

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That was the beauty of Seldon's plan and Asimov's writing. It's what gave Foundation such a likeable underdog status. Asimov managed to make you feel part of Foundation. You stopped caring for a specific character and started caring for a whole world.

During 4th Crisis, the attempts by Devers to stir up disagreements between Riose and Emperor failed, and actually backfired.
And official Foundation started the war, twice, and made no diplomatic attempts beyond contacting just Riose with their tribute offer.
Whereas during 1st Crisis, everything hung on Salvor´s diplomacy.
For some reason, during the 4 months, that Foundation was trying to stave off Anacreon by bluffing about nuclear arms and appealing to Dorwin, Smyrno, Loris and Konom and Daribow were doing nothing. (There is an obvious reason. Can you spot it?)

Not really, sorry.

When Anselm haut Rodric arrives on Terminus, he is unaware that Terminus has any nuclear energy. He only hears it from Salvor.
Well, we don´t hear of Smyrno, Loris and Konom and Daribow sending official representatives to Terminus.
Therefore, they remained as ignorant about presence of nuclear energy on Terminus as Anselm haut Rodric had been.
As far as Smyrno or Loris knew, Terminus was another sparsely settled world in the borderlands, like Red Corridor or the ones they just fought the war with Anacreon for. And nothing worth another war against Anacreon.
For some reason, even though Anacreon had not formally annexed Terminus yet, nor even placed a garrison, the Three Kingdoms did not bother to as much as send their own intelligence missions there...

Foundation wasn't important enough yet, yes. Maybe the reason they didn't bother keeping tags on Empire later was because of this thought permeating the cultural memory of FOundation people, as in: why would Empire ever bother with small fry like us?

Note how vitally the solution of First Crisis depended on Salvor Hardin doing the right thing - past time, actually. Salvor Hardin could easily have solved the Crisis long ago. He almost failed, and might easily have destroyed Foundation in First Crisis.

the thing with foundation is, they could've failed every time.