Hi,
Interesting article, but I think the authoris slightly off. Indie epubbing like a lot of industries will go through a cycle of boom and bust, and I think he's right, we are now reaching towards the end of a boom. The reason for saying that is yes, simply because so many are now out there giving away their books for free, effectively swamping the market. Who wouldn't accept a free book? The problem is that even if the book is good, it takes a readers time and capital away from buying other books. And if it's bad it may then turn prospective readers away from other indie authors.
This will inevitably make it harder for new writers to break into the market, and for those midlisters with less well established names to increase sales. But unlike a true market bust, no one, at least among the authors is going to lose their shirt over it. That's because most people don't invest a lot of money in their writing, just time and effort. (Not that that's really a just).
The only ones to lose money over it, will be those who are offering services associated with new writers. So these are the ones setting up businesses for editing, promoting, indie agents etc etc. They have invested money, are trying to make a career out of it, and they will find times tough.
But what will happen I believe is only a market correction. Sales for newby authors will slow, but not cease and then they will pick up again. Undoubtedly they will go through similar boom and bust cycles in the future as well.
The other thing that will I believe emerge, in fact is already emerging, is some sort of accredited rating system for new books and writers. As people become disillusioned with free books, and with indie work they will want something like this, and where there is a demand there will be someone to fill it.
So how can an indie survive the troughs? It really comes down to quality. A good story well told. When some sort of acredited rating group sets up and gains a name for itself, it will benefit those who's work is of a standard. So my advice would be to simply keep working on your craft, keep putting out more books, edit and re-edit the ones you've already got out to make them more saleable and fix any issues readers have identified, and when the time comes where consumers want a symbol of quality, jump on board whatever emerges with both feet.
Oh, and don't invest your shirt! Then you might actually lose it.
Cheers, Greg.